[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jun 4 09:30:48 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1303UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Jun was at the R1 level
due to an M1.4 flare at 03/1303UT produced by AR4105 (S16E75,
beta). There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR4100 (N07W35, beta) is the largest region
on the disk and has decayed over the UT day. AR4099 (S14W48,
beta) has shown mild development in its trailer spots. Newly
numbered AR4105 recently rotated over the eastern limb and appears
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 04-06 Jun.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A low velocity east-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
03/0724UT. This CME is likely associated with on disk activity
visible in SDO near N04W10. Modelling indicates this CME is not
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Jun decreased,
ranging from 545 to 675 km/s and is currently near 545 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -14
to +6 nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was
observed over the interval 03/0132-1000UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to decrease on 04-Jun due to waning effects from
a CME arrival on 01-Jun. A mild increase in the solar wind speed
is possible over 05-06 Jun due to a southern hemisphere coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: G2
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 35 45565322
Cocos Island 15 34344211
Darwin 32 45465322
Townsville 32 45465322
Learmonth 37 55565321
Alice Springs 31 45465321
Gingin 39 54566322
Canberra 34 45565321
Kennaook Cape Grim 48 45675422
Hobart 48 45675422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 67 46776532
Casey 20 54333422
Mawson 98 79735422
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 80 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 59
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 69
Planetary 0 5567 6556
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 10 G0
05 Jun 12 G0
06 Jun 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03-Jun, with isolated periods of G3 observed
at Hobart and Kennaook Cape Grim. Mostly G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G5 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 04-06 Jun, with a chance of G1 on 06-Jun due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 03-Jun were
fair, with fair to poor conditions observed at high latitudes.
Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected over 04-06
Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 70 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
05 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 56 was issued
on 31 May and is current for 2-4 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 03-Jun were depressed
by 15-35%. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be 15-20% depressed on 04-Jun, recovering
to near predicted monthly values over 05-06 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 689 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 57200 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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