[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 June 25 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jun 3 09:31:11 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 1119UT possible lower European
M1.1 2142UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Jun was at the R1 level
due to two M-class flares, the largest of which was an M3.3 flare
at 02/1118UT produced by AR4100 (N10W26, gamma). A C9.2 flare
was also produced by a region beyond the eastern limb at 02/2100UT.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4100 is the largest and most magnetically complex
region on the disk. This region has shown decay in its leader
spots and growth in its intermediate spots. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 03-05 Jun. S1 solar proton conditions
were briefly observed on UT day 02-Jun. S0-S1 solar proton conditions
are expected over 03-05 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Jun decreased, ranging
from 580 to 880 km/s and is currently near 630 km/s. A weak solar
wind shock was observed at 02/2003UT, indicative of a CME arrival.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -13
to +7 nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was
observed over the interval 02/0340-2304UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to decrease over 03-05 Jun due to waning effects
from a CME arrival on 01-Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: G2
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 38 44465454
Cocos Island 22 34443344
Darwin 32 45454444
Townsville 30 34455444
Learmonth 44 54565454
Alice Springs 34 44455454
Gingin 42 44465464
Canberra 36 44465444
Kennaook Cape Grim 55 44476555
Hobart 78 54587554
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
Macquarie Island 68 55666665
Casey 50 65444447
Mawson 92 77634368
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 17 (Quiet)
Gingin 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Hobart 127 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 42
Planetary 69
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 59
Planetary 64 ---- ----
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 36 G1-G2
04 Jun 18 G0-G1
05 Jun 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 31 May and
is current for 1-3 Jun. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 02-Jun, with an isolated period
of G4 observed at Hobart. Isolated periods of G3 were also observed
at Hobart and Kennaook Cape Grim. Mostly G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G4 observed at Mawson. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 03-Jun due to the combined effects of the already elevated
solar wind environment and a recent weak CME arrival. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 04-05 Jun due to waning CME effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1700UT 31/05, Ended at 2035UT 01/06
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2135UT 01/06, Ended at 2215UT 01/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Fair Fair-poor Poor
04 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 02-Jun were
normal to fair, with fair to poor conditions observed at high
latitudes. Degraded HF conditions are expected to continue on
03-Jun due to ongoing geomagnetic activity. Conditions are expected
to recover over 04-05 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 56 was issued
on 31 May and is current for 2-4 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 02-Jun were near predicted
monthly values with depressions of up to 40% observed during
local night in the southern Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values with depressions during local night
possible at higher latitudes over 03-05 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 950 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 259000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list