[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 June 25 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jun 3 09:31:11 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.3    1119UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    2142UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Jun was at the R1 level 
due to two M-class flares, the largest of which was an M3.3 flare 
at 02/1118UT produced by AR4100 (N10W26, gamma). A C9.2 flare 
was also produced by a region beyond the eastern limb at 02/2100UT. 
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on 
the solar disk. AR4100 is the largest and most magnetically complex 
region on the disk. This region has shown decay in its leader 
spots and growth in its intermediate spots. All other sunspot 
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected 
to be at R1-R2 levels over 03-05 Jun. S1 solar proton conditions 
were briefly observed on UT day 02-Jun. S0-S1 solar proton conditions 
are expected over 03-05 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs have been 
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Jun decreased, ranging 
from 580 to 880 km/s and is currently near 630 km/s. A weak solar 
wind shock was observed at 02/2003UT, indicative of a CME arrival. 
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) 
was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -13 
to +7 nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was 
observed over the interval 02/0340-2304UT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to decrease over 03-05 Jun due to waning effects 
from a CME arrival on 01-Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: G2

Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      38   44465454
      Cocos Island        22   34443344
      Darwin              32   45454444
      Townsville          30   34455444
      Learmonth           44   54565454
      Alice Springs       34   44455454
      Gingin              42   44465464
      Canberra            36   44465444
      Kennaook Cape Grim  55   44476555
      Hobart              78   54587554    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    68   55666665
      Casey               50   65444447
      Mawson              92   77634368

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           9   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Alice Springs       17   (Quiet)
      Gingin              54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            48   (Unsettled)
      Hobart             127   (Severe storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        42
           Planetary             69                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        59
           Planetary             64   ---- ----     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun    36    G1-G2
04 Jun    18    G0-G1
05 Jun    18    G0-G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 31 May and 
is current for 1-3 Jun. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 02-Jun, with an isolated period 
of G4 observed at Hobart. Isolated periods of G3 were also observed 
at Hobart and Kennaook Cape Grim. Mostly G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period 
of G4 observed at Mawson. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
on 03-Jun due to the combined effects of the already elevated 
solar wind environment and a recent weak CME arrival. G0-G1 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 04-05 Jun due to waning CME effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1700UT 31/05, Ended at 2035UT 01/06
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2135UT 01/06, Ended at 2215UT 01/06

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
04 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 02-Jun were 
normal to fair, with fair to poor conditions observed at high 
latitudes. Degraded HF conditions are expected to continue on 
03-Jun due to ongoing geomagnetic activity. Conditions are expected 
to recover over 04-05 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jun    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      94
Jun      109
Jul      107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    90    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun    90    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 56 was issued 
on 31 May and is current for 2-4 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 02-Jun were near predicted 
monthly values with depressions of up to 40% observed during 
local night in the southern Australian region. Spread F was observed 
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values with depressions during local night 
possible at higher latitudes over 03-05 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+09
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 950 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   259000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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