[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jun 2 09:30:48 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Jun was at the R0 level,
with a C9.0 flare at 01/1442UT. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4100 (N07W14, gamma)
is the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot region on
the solar disk, however this region showed decay in trailer spots.
AR4104 (N05E16, beta) also showed spot development, but remains
magnetically simple. All other sunspot regions are stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over
02-04 Jun. S2 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 01-Jun from 01/0530UT to 01/1240UT but the >10MeV proton flux
as measured at GOES has recently dropped below the S1 threshold.
S0-S1 conditions are expected on 02-Jun and S0 conditions are
expected over 03-04 Jun. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on
01-Jun. The solar wind speed increased rapidly at 01/0530UT due
to an impact from a CME first observed on 31-May. The solar wind
speed mostly ranged between 615 km/s and 1130 km/s and is currently
at around 850 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 27 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was -24 to +16 nT. Bt became elevated at around 01/0530UT
due to the CME impact. There were some periods of significant
-Bz (< -5 nT) but Bz was northwards for the majority of 01-Jun.
Elevated solar wind speeds are expected over the period 02-04
Jun. A slow decline is possible from 03-Jun onwards, however
the solar wind may be influenced on 04-Jun by a coronal hole
in the southern hemisphere currently rotating towards a geoeffective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: G2
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 37 35565442
Cocos Island 29 35455342
Darwin 42 36565443
Townsville 40 36565342
Learmonth 48 36566542
Alice Springs 37 35565442
Gingin 33 45554443
Canberra 37 35664342
Kennaook Cape Grim 44 35674342
Hobart 33 356-4442
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
Macquarie Island 87 55786563
Casey 68 56656457
Mawson 99 67777456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 49 (Unsettled)
Alice Springs 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gingin 116 (Major storm)
Canberra 89 (Minor storm)
Hobart 137 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 61
Planetary 124
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 ---- ----
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 60 G3, chance of G4
03 Jun 30 G0-G1
04 Jun 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 31 May and
is current for 1-3 Jun. Mostly G2 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region during the UT day 01-Jun, with
a period of G3 at Kennaook Cape Grim. Mostly G3 conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G4 at Macquarie Island. G3-G4 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 02-Jun, G0-G1 conditions are expected on 03-Jun and G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 04-Jun. Expected geomagnetic
storming is due to ongoing CME impact effects coupled with ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1700UT 31/05, Ended at 2035UT 01/06
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 01 06 2025 2135UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Poor Poor Poor
03 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 01-Jun were
mostly normal to fair, with fair to poor conditions observed
at high latitudes, worse conditions were observed in the northern
hemisphere and after 1700UT when conditions at all latitudes
became degraded. Conditions were poor at high latitudes due to
a PCA event associated with S2 solar radiation storm conditions
observed on 01-Jun. Degraded HF conditions are expected to continue
over 02-Jun, due to ongoing geomagnetic activity. Conditions
are expected to recover over 03-04 Jun as geomagnetic activity
and solar radiation activity wanes. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 56 was issued
on 31 May and is current for 2-4 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 01-Jun were near predicted
monthly values with depressions of up to 15% observed during
local night in the southern Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values with depressions during local night
possible at higher latitudes over 02-04 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 662 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 322000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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