[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 July 25 issued 2332 UT on 16 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jul 17 09:32:24 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possi1ble
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 128/81 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jul was R0, with no significant
flares. Solar region AR4143 (N23W08, beta) produced the largest
flare of the day a C5 flare at 16/0358UT. Solar region AR4142
(N01E25, beta-delta) also produced isolated minor flare activity.
Solar region AR4143 has rapidly grown and region AR4142 has also
exhibited some growth. Solar region AR4139 (N22W43, beta) has
shown a decline in its intermediate spots. Solar region AR4136
(N19W24, beta) has slightly grown. There are currently eleven
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Other regions are
small. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 17-19 Jul.
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A CME was observed
from 16/1736UT in LASCO C2 imagery associated with an erupting
solar prominence on the western solar limb and is not considered
Earth directed. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 16-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 17-19 Jul. The solar wind on UT day 16-Jul remained elevated
and variable due to ongoing coronal hole effects. The solar wind
speed ranged from 510 to 600 km/s, currently near 580 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -8 nT. The
IMF Bz component was variable up to 17UT, with a more consistent
southward orientation during the interval 16/1700-2100UT. The
solar wind is expected to remain enhanced over 17-18 Jul due
to ongoing coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 10 23241123
Cocos Island 6 13221013
Darwin 10 33231123
Townsville 11 33241123
Learmonth 11 23241133
Alice Springs 9 22241123
Gingin 12 23240134
Canberra 9 22241113
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 22251123
Hobart 9 22241123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 17 23361013
Casey 10 33331122
Mawson 50 55542167
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23 4455 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 19 G0, chance G1
18 Jul 17 G0, chance G1
19 Jul 14 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 14 July and
is current for 15-17 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 16-Jul. G0-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. A period of
planetary G1 conditions was observed toward the end of the UT
day. G0, chance G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 17-18
Jul due to ongoing coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 16-Jul were
fair to normal. HF radio propagation conditions over 17-19 Jul
are expected to be fair to normal with fair conditions at middle
to high latitudes. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 80 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 80 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 80 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on 16-Jul were depressed 30% to near predicted values.
Darwin MUFs were strongly depressed during local night hours.
Spread F was observed during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be 10-20% depressed to near predicted values over 17-19 Jul
due to ongoing mild geomagnetic activity induce by a coronal
hole wind stream. Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 628 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 286000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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