[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 July 25 issued 2331 UT on 15 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jul 16 09:31:57 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 125/78 128/81
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jul was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR4139 (N22W32, beta-gamma), AR4142 (N01E37,
beta) and AR4143 (N23E03, beta) have all shown reasonably fast
growth over the past day, although no regions have produced any
flares yet. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance
for R2 over 16-18 Jul.
A large filament erupted in the solar northeast from 0544 UT.
An associated CME was observed from 0748 UT but was modelled as
an Earth miss. Several other CMEs were observed on UT day 15-Jul,
however they are not expected to be geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 15-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 16-18 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 15-Jul was
disturbed due to ongoing coronal hole effects. The solar wind
speed ranged from 514 to 721 km/s, currently near 580 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT
and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +9 to -10 nT.
A few brief periods of southward Bz were observed in the first
half of the day. The solar wind is expected to remain enhanced
over 16-18 Jul due to ongoing coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 33342211
Cocos Island 6 23232000
Darwin 12 33342222
Townsville 11 33342211
Learmonth 14 33352212
Alice Springs 10 33342101
Gingin 13 23352211
Canberra 11 33342211
Kennaook Cape Grim 15 33452211
Hobart 15 33452211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 21 24554211
Casey 12 34432201
Mawson 45 66553216
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 2332 3354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 23 G0-G1
17 Jul 23 G0-G1
18 Jul 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 14 July and
is current for 15-17 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 15-Jul. G0-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Periods of
G1 were observed on the planetary G-scale. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 16-18 Jul due to ongoing coronal
hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
17 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
18 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 15-Jul were
generally normal with some mild degradations. HF radio propagation
conditions over 16-18 Jul are expected to be similar; mostly
normal with brief degradations, particularly during local night
hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 75 Near predicted values to 20-30% depressed
17 Jul 70 Near predicted values to 20-30% depressed
18 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted values to 25% depressed. Spread-F
and sporadic-E were observed at most sites during local night
and dawn hours, particularly in low latitudes. Conditions were
degraded at low latitudes during local night and dawn hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 20-30% depressed
over 16-18 Jul due to ongoing coronal hole effects. Sporadic-E
and spread-F may be present during local night hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 520 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 94300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list