[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 July 25 issued 2332 UT on 14 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Jul 15 09:32:23 AEST 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 128/81

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   128/81             128/81             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jul was R0, with no solar 
flares. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on 
the solar disk. AR4139 (N22W18, beta) and AR4142 (N01E51, beta) 
have shown some minor growth over the past day. All other sunspot 
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected 
to be R0-R1 over 15-17 Jul. 

No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 14-Jul. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 14-Jul. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 15-17 Jul. 

The solar wind environment on UT day 14-Jul was 
mildly disturbed due to recent coronal hole activity, but is 
on a general decline. The solar wind speed ranged from 636 to 
454 km/s and is on a slow decline. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component 
range (Bz) was +7 to -8 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue 
its current trend today, however is expected to become enhanced 
again by the end of the UT day 15-Jul due to another coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22313232
      Cocos Island         6   12202231
      Darwin               9   22313232
      Townsville           9   22313232
      Learmonth           10   22313332
      Alice Springs        9   22303232
      Gingin               9   22303232
      Canberra             9   22303232
      Kennaook Cape Grim  10   22313233
      Hobart              12   22313243    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    11   22313333
      Casey               14   33312343
      Mawson              28   34423464

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary              0   4543 4333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jul    11    G0-G1
16 Jul    14    G0-G1
17 Jul    12    G0, chance G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 14 July and 
is current for 15-17 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 14-Jul. G0-G2 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. A period of 
G1 was observed on the planetary geomagnetic G scale. G0-G1 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 15-16 Jul. Conditions may begin 
to settle by 17-Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Fair           Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
16 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair
17 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Global HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Jul 
were mildly degraded. HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
to be normal to mildly degraded over 15-17 Jul due to ongoing 
coronal hole effects. Low latitudes may be impacted more than 
middle latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Jul    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      79
Jul      104
Aug      102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jul    80    Near predicted values to 30% depressed
16 Jul    75    Near predicted values to 30% depressed
17 Jul    70    Near predicted values to 30% depressed

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Jul were 
near predicted values to 30% depressed. Conditions at Brisbane 
and Hobart were degraded during local night hours. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted values to 30% depressed over 15-17 Jul due 
to coronal hole effects.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 603 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   226000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au