[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 July 25 issued 2332 UT on 13 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jul 14 09:32:28 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 128/81 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Jul was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR4140 (S14E48, beta-delta) produced numerous C
flares over the past 24 hours, with the largest a C8.9 at 13/0402UT.
The delta spot in the northern trailer spots of this region is
small and weak and the southern trailer spots have redistributed
and may be possibly showing some decay, with the eastward location
of this region making assessment difficult. Solar region AR4136
(N19E16, beta-delta) was flare quiet. The delta spot near the
larger trailer spot in this region is very small and very weak
and the region overall continues to slowly decay. The intermediate
spots of smaller solar region AR4139 (N22W02, beta) are developing.
Solar region AR4138 (N29W36, beta) shows decay in its leader
and trailer spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. There are currently seven numbered solar regions
on the visible solar disk. A C8.9 flare was observed on the southwest
solar limb at 13/2150UT at solar latitude S15. In SDO 193 imagery
breaking plasma arch motion was also observed on the western
solar limb around this time at solar latitude N10. In addition,
small on disk plasma motion was observed to the southwest of
region AR4138 at location N15W45 at 13/2058UT in SDO 193 imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be R1, with the chance of an isolated
R2 flare over 14-16 Jul, primarily due to solar region AR4140.
No significant Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 13-Jul.
A northwest CME was observed from 13/2124UT in LASCO C2 imagery.
Further analysis will be conducted as more images become available.
At this stage this CME is considered to be associated with the
western limb plasma motion and C8.9 flare as the on disk activity
southwest of AR4138 is very minor and the CME is currently assessed
as not Earth directed. S0 solar radiation conditions were observed
on 13-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
14-16 Jul. A large coronal hole is visible in the southern solar
hemisphere and the more southern main area of this hole is now
across the solar central meridian. The narrow northward transequatorial
extension of this hole is now well west of the solar central
meridian. The solar wind speed on 13-Jul was moderate to strong
and initially increased then decreased due to the coronal hole
wind stream from the northward extension of this coronal hole.
The solar wind speed ranged from 717 to 545 km/s, and is currently
at 585 km/sec. The total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+10 to -10 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain moderately
enhanced today with a possible slow overall declining trend as
the main area of the coronal hole is more southward in solar
latitude.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 34333222
Cocos Island 9 23232222
Darwin 13 34332223
Townsville 13 34333222
Learmonth 17 34433233
Alice Springs 13 34333222
Gingin 15 34333233
Canberra 15 34343222
Kennaook Cape Grim 15 34343222
Hobart 15 33443222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 24 34454432
Casey 32 34333472
Mawson 46 46553456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 61 (Active)
Canberra 72 (Active)
Hobart 85 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3333 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 16 G0, chance G1
15 Jul 12 G0
16 Jul 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 13 July and
is current for 13-14 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 13-Jul. G1-G3 periods were
observed in the Antarctic region. Isolated G1 periods are possible
on 14-Jul due to the influence of a coronal hole wind stream,
with G0 conditions expected for 15-16 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Jul were
fair to normal, with poor conditions at times at high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be fair at middle
to high latitudes on 14-15 Jul, due to a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity from a coronal hole wind stream. Improving conditions
are expected for middle to high latitudes on 16-Jul. HF conditions
in the polar regions may be poor at times. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 85 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 85 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 85 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on
12 July and is current for 12-14 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 13-Jul were 25% depressed
to near predicted monthly values, with depressed conditions during
local night hours in the northern Australian region. Spread F
was observed during local night hours at Darwin, Townsville,
Canberra and Hobart. MUFs are expected to be 10-15% depressed
to near predicted monthly values over 14-16 Jul. Degraded HF
conditions may be experienced during local night hours. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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