[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 July 25 issued 2332 UT on 12 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jul 13 09:32:22 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0402UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.3 0834UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 1210UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Jul was at the R1-Minor
level. Solar region AR4140 (S14E62, beta) produced the three
M class flares. This region has shown growth in its trailer spots.
Solar region AR4138 (N29W24, beta) which grew rapidly yesterday,
increasing in longitudinal extent and spot area, has remained
flare quiet. Smaller AR4139 (N22E11, beta) is also growing. Both
AR4138 and AR4139 currently exhibit a more open spot configuration.
Solar region AR4136 (N19E29, beta-gamma) continues to slowly
decay with some reconfiguration in its large trailer spot and
produced a C7.0 flare at 12/1835UT. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. There are currently six numbered
solar regions on the visible solar disk. A 10 degree long solar
filament located at S40W65 visible in GONG El Teide H-alpha imagery
erupted from 12/0900UT. The filament appeared to lift off in
an eastward direction. Solar activity is expected to be R1, chance
R2 over 13-15 Jul. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT
day 12-Jul. A southwest directed CME was observed from 12/0812UT
in LASCO C2 imagery. As this CME was already visible in C2 imagery
before the start of the filament eruption in the southwest quadrant
observed from 12/0900UT it is not considered associated with
this event and is considered to be from on or behind the south
western solar limb. A northeast CME was observed from 12/1536UT
and could not be correlated to the solar disk. S0 solar radiation
conditions were observed on 12-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions are expected over 13-15 Jul. A large coronal hole
is visible in the southern solar hemisphere with a narrow transequatorial
northward extension of this hole now west of the solar central
meridian. The bulk of the area of this coronal hole is more southward
located at around S35, with the wind stream from this main area
considered more likely to pass under the Earth. The solar wind
speed on 12-Jul was moderate to strong and increased due to the
coronal hole wind stream from this hole. The solar wind speed
ranged from 450 to 565 km/s, and is currently at 565 km/sec.
The total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +12 to -8 nT. The
solar wind is expected to remain moderately enhanced today due
to the ongoing influence of the coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 22333212
Cocos Island 6 22222112
Darwin 12 33332223
Townsville 10 33332122
Learmonth 9 22333212
Alice Springs 8 22332112
Gingin 10 22333222
Canberra 10 22243122
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 22243212
Hobart 10 22243212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 22 22365311
Casey 16 44333232
Mawson 21 33433245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 64 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 2334 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 17 G0-G1, slight chance G2
14 Jul 16 G0-G1
15 Jul 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Jul. G0-G2 conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. G1 periods are possible over 13-14 Jul due
to the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. There is a chance
for a weak CME arrival on 13-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
14 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 12-Jul were
fair to normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be fair at middle to high latitudes over 13-14 Jul, due to
a mild increase in geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind
stream. HF conditions in the polar regions may be poor at times.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 75 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 75 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 75 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on
12 July and is current for 12-14 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 12-Jul were 25% depressed
to near predicted monthly values, with depressed conditions in
the the northern Australian region. Spread F was observed during
local night hours at Townsville, Learmonth, Perth, Norfolk Island
and Hobart. MUFs are expected to be 15-20% depressed to near
predicted monthly values over 13-15 Jul. Degraded HF conditions
are expected during local night hours due to mild geomagnetic
activity induced by a coronal hole wind stream. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 150000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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