[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 July 25 issued 2332 UT on 10 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jul 11 09:32:22 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 115/66 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jul was R0. The largest
solar flare of the day was a C9 event, just under the R1 threshold,
which was produced by a region not yet visible on the eastern
limb. Of the visible sunspot regions, AR4136 (N19E54, beta-gamma)
may be deeloping a small delta region and is currently the most
complex sunspot on the frontside of the Sun. AR4137 (N19W33,
beta) has also increased in complexity. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be R0-R1 with a chance for R2 over 11-13 Jul.
A small plasma eruption can be observed from 10/0019 UT near S30E10 and a weak
CME can be seen for a few frames from 10/0212 UT to the southwest.
This small emission may arrive at Earth by 13-Jul. No other Earth
directed CMEs were observed on UT day 10-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 10-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 11-13 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 10-Jul was quiet. The solar wind
speed remained on a gentle decline and ranged from 420 to 340 km/s.
The total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +3 to -2 nT. The
solar wind may become enhanced by the end of the UT day 11-Jul,
or else 12-Jul, due to a recurrent coronal hole soon to connect
with the Earth.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 21100000
Townsville 1 11100000
Learmonth 1 21100000
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Gingin 0 11000000
Canberra 0 10000000
Kennaook Cape Grim 0 10000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 23100010
Mawson 6 32200320
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3222 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 10 G0
12 Jul 17 G0-G1
13 Jul 15 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 10-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are mostly expected on UT day 11-Jul, before periods of G1 are
possible over 12-13 Jul due to an anticipated coronal hole connection.
A chance of G2 is possible on 13-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 10-Jul were
mildly degraded during the first half of the day, beginning to
improve late in the day. HF radio propagation conditions are
expected to be normal for most of 11-Jul, becoming mildly degraded
until 13-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 75 Near predicted values to 20-30% depressed
12 Jul 70 Near predicted values to 20-30% depressed
13 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values to 25-35% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on
9 July and is current for 9-11 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 10-Jul were depressed
up to 35%. Conditions were degraded in Townsville and Hobart
during local dawn hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values to 20-30% depressed over 11-13 Jul, and conditions are
expected to worsen throughout the period due to coronal hole
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list