[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 July 25 issued 2332 UT on 09 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jul 10 09:32:23 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0425UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 112/63 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 9-Jul was R1, with an isolated
M1.3 solar flare from AR4136 (N19E69). There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR4137 (N13W19, beta)
has grown in the past day. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R1 with
a chance of R2 over 10-12 Jul.
A CME was observed from 09/1428 UT directed to the north but this
is not expected to be geoeffective. No other frontside CMEs were
observed on UT day 9-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 9-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 10-12 Jul.
On UT day 9-Jul the solar wind environment was generally undisturbed.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +3 to -4
nT. The solar wind speed was on a slow decline as Earth leaves
connection with the coronal hole and ranged from 526 to 385 km/s.
The solar wind is expected to become disturbed by late 10-Jul
or else on 11-Jul due to a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22122210
Cocos Island 3 22111100
Darwin 6 32212211
Townsville 5 22122211
Learmonth 5 32222100
Alice Springs 4 22112200
Gingin 6 32222210
Canberra 4 21122210
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 22122211
Hobart 5 21122211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 21123110
Casey 8 33222221
Mawson 19 54332224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 3433 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 12 G0
11 Jul 10 G0
12 Jul 17 G0-G1
COMMENT: On UT day 9-Jul Australian region geomagnetic conditions
were G0. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are mostly expected over 10-11
Jul. A weak CME may glance the Earth by late 10 or early 11-Jul
but is not expected to be significant. Periods of G1 are possible
late 11-Jul or else on 12-Jul due to expected coronal hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 9-Jul were
near normal, with some degradations in the southern hemisphere
at the start and end of the day. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 10-11 Jul, then becoming
degraded on 12-Jul due to coronal hole activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 80 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 80 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 70 Near predicted values to 20-30% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on
9 July and is current for 9-11 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 9-Jul were near predicted
values to 30% depressed during local night. Conditions were degraded
in Townsville and Hobart during local dawn hours. Sporadic-E
was observed at Norfolk Island during local day hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted values to 20% depressed over 10-11
Jul, then further depressions are possible by 12-Jul due to expected
coronal hole activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 514 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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