[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 July 25 issued 2332 UT on 08 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jul 9 09:32:11 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 0418UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 115/66 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 8-Jul was R1. The M2.4 flare
was from a solar region that is currently rotating onto the solar
disk over the northeast solar limb at solar latitude N19. The
solar region's proximity to the limb prevents definitive magnetic
classification, with a bipolar configuration currently evident.
Most of the on disk regions are very small, with AR4135 (S09E59,
beta) the largest, but this region has been relatively stable.
The other region of recent note AR4127 (S17W81, beta) is rotating
off disk. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
and a new region rotating onto the solar disk. Other regions
are very small and either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R0-R1 over 9-11 Jul, with further R1 flare
activity possible from the new solar region currently rotating
onto the disk. No significantly Earth directed CMEs were observed
on UT day 8-Jul. The M2.4 flare was associated with a north northeast
CME which has been modelled as an Earth miss. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 8-Jul. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 9-11 Jul. The solar wind speed
was moderately elevated with a slight declining trend on UT day
8-Jul due to the waning influence of a coronal hole now in the
far southwest solar quadrant. Another coronal hole is visible
in the southeast solar quadrant, with a northward extension.
The solar wind speed ranged from 492 to 581 km/s and is currently
at 495 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+7 to -8 nT, with brief periods of mildly southward Bz conditions
were observed during the interval 08/0300-1300UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to be moderate today with a declining trend.
The 27 day recurrent pattern indicating southward IMF conditions
over 8-9 Jul has so far failed to eventuate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 23221311
Cocos Island 6 13221211
Darwin 7 23221311
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 10 23222412
Alice Springs 7 13221311
Gingin 10 23231411
Canberra 7 23221311
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 23221311
Hobart 7 23221311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
Macquarie Island 10 23232411
Casey 21 34332622
Mawson 31 35443346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 22 5433 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 16 G0, chance G1
10 Jul 12 G0
11 Jul 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 7 July and
is current for 8-9 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 8-Jul. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence
patterns indicating that G1 conditions are likely during the
interval 8-9 Jul have so far failed to eventuate. There is a
chance of a very weak glancing blow arrival from late in the
UT day 10-Jul to early in the UT day 11-Jul from a north directed
CME associated with a recent erupting solar filament.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 8-Jul were
fair to normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be fair to normal over 9-11 Jul, with fair conditions for
high latitudes. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns indicating
degraded HF conditions are likely during for middle to high latitudes
during the interval 8-9 Jul have so far failed to eventuate.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 80 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 80 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 80 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 8-Jul were depressed 35% to near predicted values,
with depressed conditions during local night hours for the northern
Australian region. Spread-F was observed at Townsville, Learmonth,
Hobart during local night hours. Blanketing sporadic E observed
at Casey and Mawson in Antarctica. MUFs are expected to be generally
depressed 15-20% to near predicted values MUFs over 9-11 Jul.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 531 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 220000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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