[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 July 25 issued 2332 UT on 07 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jul 8 09:32:11 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 113/64 111/62 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 7-Jul was R0. There is currently
no region of significance on the visible solar disk. Solar region
AR4127 (S17W68, beta) is currently the largest region on the
disk and is approaching the southwest solar limb. This region
has slightly grown and has produced some minor C class flares.
On the northeast solar limb at solar latitude N20 C class flare
activity was observed late in the UT day indicating a new region
may shortly rotate on to the visible disk. There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. A very small
region may be emerging on disk at N03W07. Other regions are very
small and either stable or in decay. A 25 degree long solar filament
with centre located at N36E30 erupted during the interval 07/0030-0330UT.
An erupting prominence was observed on the northeast solar limb
at solar latitude N30 from 07/1700UT. Solar activity is expected
to be R0 over 8-10 Jul. No significantly Earth directed CMEs
were observed on UT day 7-Jul. A north directed CME was observed
from 07/0324UT in association with the filament eruption. This
has been modelled mostly as an Earth miss, with a slight graze
of the Earth's magnetosphere possible late in the UT day 10-Jul
to early in the UT day 11-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 7-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 8-10 Jul. The solar wind speed moderately increased
on UT day 7-Jul due to ongoing coronal hole effects. The solar
wind speed ranged from 424 to 600 km/s and is currently at 550km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +9 to -10
nT, with a period of southward Bz conditions 06/2145UT-07/0100UT.
The solar wind is expected to be moderate today. IMF 27 day recurrent
patterns indicate that southward IMF conditions are likely during
the interval 08-09 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 33223322
Cocos Island 8 32222321
Darwin 10 33222322
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 12 33323331
Alice Springs 8 33222221
Gingin 14 43323332
Canberra 8 32222222
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 32223222
Hobart 11 33223322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 19 43235422
Casey 28 33332732
Mawson 41 64544634
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 26 4534 3235
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 14 G0, G1 periods late in the UT day
09 Jul 18 G1
10 Jul 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 7 July and
is current for 8-9 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 7-Jul. G0-G3 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Brief G1 planetary conditions
were observed early in the UT day. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence
patterns indicate that G1 conditions are likely during the interval
8-9 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal Fair Fair
10 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 7-Jul were
fair to normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be initially normal then becoming fair for middle to high
latitudes over 8-9 Jul due to recurrent patterns of geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 80 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 69 was issued on 7 July
and is current for 7-8 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region on UT day 7-Jul were depressed 20% to
near predicted values. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. Persistent blanketing sporadic E observed
at Mawson in Antarctica. MUFs are expected to be generally near
predicted values with the chance of mildly depressed MUFs in
the southern Australian region on 10-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 89500 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list