[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 July 25 issued 2332 UT on 06 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jul 7 09:32:07 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             113/64             111/62

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 6-Jul was R0, with no solar 
flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on 
the solar disk. AR 4127 (S22W58, beta), AR4130 (S14W10, beta) 
and AR4132 (S25W14, beta) have all shown some minor growth over 
the past day but overall all visible sunspots are small and not 
showing significant potential for solar flares. Solar activity 
is expected to be R0 over 7-9 Jul.

 No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 6-Jul. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 6-Jul.
 S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 7-9 Jul.

 The solar wind environment was mildly disturbed on UT day 6-Jul due 
to ongoing coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed ranged from 379 
to 472 km/s and is slowly declining. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component
 range (Bz) was +9 to -10 nT, with several periods of southward Bz. The solar 
wind is expected to slowly return to background levels over 7-9 
Jul, possibly increasing by the end of the period due to another 
small coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33343023
      Cocos Island         6   23222012
      Darwin              12   33333123
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth           12   33333023
      Alice Springs       10   33233022
      Gingin              12   33243023
      Canberra            10   33242012
      Kennaook Cape Grim  13   33343023
      Hobart              16   33353023    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    23   24364024
      Casey               10   33332013
      Mawson              48   67434136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20   3334 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul    10    G0-G1
08 Jul     8    G0
09 Jul    10    G0

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 6 July and 
is current for 6-7 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 6-Jul. G0-G3 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Average planetary conditions 
observed an isolated period of G1. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 7-9 Jul. An isolated period of G1 is possible on
7-Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Fair           Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 6-Jul were 
normal to mildly degraded due to ongoing coronal hole effects. 
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal 
to mildly degraded on 7-Jul, trending to more normal on 8-Jul, 
then possibly becoming degraded late on 9-Jul due to further 
coronal hole effects.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jul    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      79
Jul      104
Aug      102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
08 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
09 Jul    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 6-Jul were near predicted values to 25% depressed. 
Conditions were heavily degraded in the northern regions during 
local dawn hours. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local 
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 
15% depressed over 7-8 Jul, improving by 9-Jul.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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