[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 July 25 issued 2332 UT on 05 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jul 6 09:32:14 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts R0 R0 R0
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 113/64
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 5-Jul was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR4130 (S10E05, beta) has shown some slight growth
in the past day, but is overall small and reasonably simple.
All other sunspot regions are small and stable. Solar activity
is expected to be R0 over 6-8 Jul.
A prominence eruption can be seen from 05/0700 UT from the solar
northwest limb and was associated with a CME. This CME is not expected
to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed on UT day 5-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 5-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 6-8 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 5-Jul was mildly perturbed due
to ongoing coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed ranged from
369 to 487 km/s and is on an increasing trend. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT adn the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +8 to -11 nT, with several periods of sustained
southward Bz. The solar wind is expected to peak on UT day 5-Jul
before beginning to return to background levels over 6-7 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 22233242
Cocos Island 7 22222231
Darwin 11 23233232
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 12 23233242
Alice Springs 10 22233232
Gingin 19 22244353
Canberra 9 22133232
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 22243242
Hobart 13 22243242
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 22 23355342
Casey 14 33333332
Mawson 27 35433255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 19 ---- ----
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 14 G0, chance G1
07 Jul 10 G0
08 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were generally observed in
the Australian region on UT day 5-Jul, with an isolated period
of G1 at Gingin. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 6-8 Jul with a small chance of G1 on 6-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on ut day 5-Jul were
mostly normal, with some degradations at low latitudes. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal with
sporadic degradations throughout the day on 6-Jul. Conditions
are expected to be normal over 7-8 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 95 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 68 was issued
on 4 July and is current for 4-6 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 5-Jul were near predicted
values to 25% depressed. Conditions at low and high latitudes
were degraded during local dawn hours and Cocos Island experienced
significant depressions. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values to 15% depressed on UT day 6-Jul, on an improving trend
over 7-8 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 41000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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