[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 July 25 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jul 5 09:30:48 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts R0 R0 R0
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 118/70 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 4-Jul was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the
solar disk, however they are all stable. None of the current
sunspots are magnetically complex. Solar activity is expected
to be mostly R0 over 5-7 Jul.
A coronal streamer began erupting from 1400 UT to the solar southeast,
although given its slow velocity it is not likely to be significantly
geoeffective. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed on
UT day 4-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 4-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 5-7 Jul.
The solar wind environment became mildly disturbed on
UT day 4-Jul due to the Earth connecting with a coronal hole.
The solar wind speed ranged from 338 to 389 km/s and is on an
inclining trend. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +9 to -9 nT, with a period of sustained southward Bz at the
end of the day. Disturbed conditions is expected to fluctuate
over 5-7 Jul due to the coronal hole being too high a latitude
to sustain connection to Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 12211133
Cocos Island 4 11200023
Darwin 6 22210123
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 22211033
Alice Springs 4 12200023
Gingin 8 22201134
Canberra 4 12201122
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 12211133
Hobart 6 12211132
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 10 32312233
Casey 8 23221123
Mawson 32 55521255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 10 3333 4234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 15 G0-G1
06 Jul 14 G0
07 Jul 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in teh Australian
region on UT day 4-Jul. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected over 5-7 Jul, with a chance of G1 on 5-Jul due to coronal
hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 4-Jul were
generally normal, with some degradations at low latitudes towards
the end of the day. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mildly degraded over 5-7 due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 80 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 68 was issued
on 4 July and is current for 4-6 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 4-Jul were near predicted
values to 25% depressed. Conditions at low latitudes were degraded
during local dawn hours. Scintillation was observed at Niue from
0940-1007UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to
10-20% depressed on 5-Jul due to coronal hole activity, on an
improving trend over 6-7 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 12.5 p/cc Temp: 38900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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