[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 July 25 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jul 4 09:30:39 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 132/86 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 3-Jul was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There is currently no solar region of significance
on the visible solar disk. Solar region AR4129 (N02E02, beta)
has grown slightly and solar region AR4127 (S17W16, beta) exhibited
redistribution of its intermediate spots with both growth and
decay evident. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. Most of the solar regions are very small.
A very small 5 degree long solar filament located at S02E12 lifted
off from 03/1218UT but no CME was discernible. Solar activity
is expected to be R0 over 4-6 Jul. Solar prominence eruptions
were observed on the eastern solar limb from 03/0508UT and western
solar limb from 03/0349UT in SDO304 imagery. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in available imagery. From 03/0720UT CMEs
were observed directed east and west in association with the
solar prominence eruptions. Due to the solar limb location of
the eruptions theses CMEs are not expected to reach te Earth.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 3-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 4-6 Jul.
The solar wind speed on UT day 3-Jul was slightly variable. The
solar wind speed ranged from 408 to 340 km/s and is currently
at 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+3 to -12 nT. The IMF Bt became mildly enhanced after 03/05500UT.
The IMF Bz was mildly southward 02/2200UT-03/0340UT, 03/1152-1230UT
and from 03/1725UT. The Earth is expected to enter a coronal
hole wind stream over 04-05 Jul, however the southern latitudinal
location of the associated coronal hole may reduce the influence
of this wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 23333322
Cocos Island 11 23333222
Darwin 13 23343322
Townsville 11 23------
Learmonth 15 23343333
Alice Springs 12 23333322
Gingin 13 23333332
Canberra 12 23333322
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 13333322
Hobart 11 13333322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 11 13204421
Casey 10 23332222
Mawson 25 43432246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 1222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 16 G0, chance G1
05 Jul 15 G0, chance G1
06 Jul 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 3-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region with an isolated G2 period observed at Mawson.
G0, chance G1 conditions expected 04-05 Jul due to a coronal
hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 3-Jul were
fair to normal, with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be fair at middle
to high latitudes over 04-05 Jul, in association with weak geomagnetic
activity from a coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 75 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 3-Jul were 25% depressed to near predicted values.
Spread F was observed during local night hours at Brisbane, Hobart
and Townsville. MUFs are generally expected to be 15-20% depressed
to near predicted values over 4-6 Jul, with mildly degraded HF
conditions during local night hours for the southern Australian
region during 04-05 Jul in association with mild geomagnetic
activity induced by a coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 28300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list