[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 July 25 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jul 3 09:30:48 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 128/81
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 2-Jul was R0, with no significant
solar flares. Solar region AR4126 (N07W77, beta) produced C class
flare activity, the largest a C2.5 flare at 02/1835UT. Solar
region AR4125 (N22E13, alpha) produced a small optical flare
at 02/1156UT with an associated small plasma ejection to the
northeast visible in SDO304 from 02/1159UT. The trailer and intermediate
spots of solar region AR4127 (S17W04, beta-gamma) are growing.
Solar region AR4129 (N02E14, beta-gamma) has shown slight growth.
There are currently eleven numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. Most of the solar regions are very small. Solar activity
is generally expected to be R0 over 3-5 Jul. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in available imagery. A minor far side CME
directed to the southeast was observed from 02/0024UT.S0 solar
radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 2-Jul. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 3-5 Jul. The
solar wind speed on UT day 2-Jul declined. The solar wind speed
ranged from 440 to 340 km/s and is currently at 360 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +2 to -4 nT. An
anticipated weak CME arrival expected on 02-Jul has failed to
eventuate. The Earth is expected to enter a coronal hole wind
stream over 04-05 Jul, however the southern latitudinal location
of the associated coronal hole may reduce the influence of this
wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 12222221
Cocos Island 3 11111211
Darwin 7 12222322
Townsville 6 12222221
Learmonth 6 12222320
Alice Springs 5 02222221
Gingin 8 12222420
Canberra 4 01222220
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 01222230
Hobart 4 01222220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 00233120
Casey 7 22211331
Mawson 22 43322363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 0 3221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 12 G0
04 Jul 18 G0, chance G1
05 Jul 18 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 2-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region with an isolated G2 period observed at Mawson.
G0 conditions are expected for 03-Jul, with G0, chance G1 conditions
expected 04-05 Jul due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 2-Jul were
fair to normal, with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal for
03-Jul, with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes over
04-05 Jul, in association with weak geomagnetic activity from
a coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during the local day to
near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 85 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 85 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 2-Jul were 20% depressed to near predicted values.
Spread F was generally observed during local night hours. MUFs
are generally expected to be 15-20% depressed to near predicted
values over 3-5 Jul, with mildly degraded HF conditions during
local night hours for the southern Australian region during 04-05
Jul in association with mild geomagnetic activity induced by
a coronal hole wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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