[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 July 25 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jul 2 09:30:54 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 128/81 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 1-Jul was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. Regions 4123 (S28W36, beta), 4126 (N07W65, beta)
and 4129 (N02E26, beta) have shown minor growth in the past day,
however all regions are generally small and stable. Solar activity
is generally expected to be R0 over 2-4 Jul.
No CMEs were observed in available imagery.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 1-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 2-4 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 1-Jul was steady. The solar wind
speed ranged from 546 to 415 km/s and is on a declining trend. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -6 nT. The solar
wind is expected to become mildly perturbed early 2-Jul due to the
arrival of a weak CME. A coronal hole may connect with Earth by late
3-Jul to enhance the solar wind speed, however this feature may be too high a
latitude to have any influence.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 22110001
Cocos Island 2 22110001
Darwin 3 22110011
Townsville 2 22110001
Learmonth 3 22210002
Alice Springs 2 21100001
Gingin 3 22100002
Canberra 2 21100001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 21110001
Hobart 2 21110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 22110000
Casey 5 33120002
Mawson 17 43422125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 0 2223 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 18 G0-G1
03 Jul 12 G0-G1
04 Jul 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 30 June and
is current for 2 Jul only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 1-Jul. G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 2-4 Jul; a weak CME
is expected to arrive nearly on 2-Jul, and then a coronal hole
is expected to connect with Earth by late 3-Jul or else on 4-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
03 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
04 Jul Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Global HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 1-Jul
were normal to mildly degraded, with depressions around 15% common,
especially in the southern hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be normal to mildly degraded over 2-4 Jul, initially
due to weak CME activity and then due to coronal hole activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 79
Jul 104
Aug 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 80 Near predicted values to 20% depressed
03 Jul 75 Near predicted values to 20% depressed
04 Jul 75 Near predicted values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 1-Jul were near predicted values to 20% depressed.
Conditions in the northern Australian regions, and also in Canberra,
during local nighttime hours were generally degraded. Strong
spread-F was observed at Hobart during local nighttime. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values to 20% depressed over
2-4 Jul, initially due to CME activity and then due to coronal
hole activity by the end of the period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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