[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jul 1 09:30:58 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   126/79             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Jun was R0, with no significant 
solar flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions 
on the solar disk. AR4127 (S17E21, beta) has shown some minor 
growth but has been quiet in the past day. New region AR4129 
(S03E35), while still premature, may develop some complexity. 
Solar activity is expected to be R0 with a chance of R1 over 
1-3 Jul. 

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available imagery. 
A weak partial halo CME from 28-Jun has been assessed as Earth 
directed and may arrive late 1-Jul or early on 2-Jul.

 S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 30-Jun.
 S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 1-3 Jul. 

The solar wind environment was mostly steady on UT day 30-Jun. 
The solar wind speed mostly ranged from 400-500 km/s, elevated due 
to coronal hole activity but on a general declining trend. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the 
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -6 nT. The solar 
wind is expected to be mildly elevated due to waning coronal hole 
effects, then become disturbed on either late 1-Jul or early 2-Jul 
due to the arrival of a weak CME from 28-Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22231321
      Cocos Island         6   22221221
      Darwin               8   22231321
      Townsville           8   22231321
      Learmonth           10   23331321
      Alice Springs        7   12231321
      Gingin               9   22231331
      Canberra             6   11230321
      Kennaook Cape Grim   8   11241321
      Hobart               8   11241321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    14   22350421
      Casey                9   23232222
      Mawson              37   45443546

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              0   2222 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul     6    G0, chance G1
02 Jul    20    G0-G1
03 Jul    15    G0, chance G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 30 June and 
is current for 2 Jul only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 20-Jun. G0-G2 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected on 1-Jul. G1 geomagnetic conditions may 
begin either late 1-Jul or else early on 2-Jul due to an anticipated 
CME impact which may continue into 3-Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
03 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 30-Jun were 
mildly degraded in the southern hemisphere. HF radio propagation 
conditions are expected to be normal on 1-Jul, but becoming mildly 
degraded over 2-3 Jul due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jun    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      94
Jun      109
Jul      107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul    85    Near predicted values
02 Jul    80    Near predicted values to 15% depressed
03 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Jun in 
the Australian region were near predicted values to 15% depressed. 
Signal spreading was observed in Niue and Hobart during local 
night hours. Sporadic-E was observed in Hobart and Learmonth. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values on UT day 1-Jul, 
then becoming 15% depressed over 2-3 Jul due to geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 519 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   120000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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