[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 30 10:30:52 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0408UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Jan was R1, with an isolated
M1.0 flare from solar region AR3977 ( N18E57, beta) which has
slightly grown. Solar region AR3978 (N11E72, alpha) has been
stable and AR3976 (N12E60, beta) has shown slight development.
These three regions are in a cluster in the northeast solar quadrant.
Small solar region AR3974 (S16E37, beta) has shown minor growth.
Two minor solar regions AR3975 and AR3972 have rotated off disk.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk with one new unnumbered small emerging spot region located
at approximately S05W13. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1
over 30-Jan to 01-Feb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed on UT day 29-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 30-Jan to 01-Feb. No significantly Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. A far side CME was in progress off the
northeast solar limb at the start of the UT day. A minor narrow
southwest CME was observed from 29/0636UT which could not be correlated
to on disk activity. The solar wind environment on UT day 29-Jan
was nominal. The solar wind speed was slow and steady and ranged
from 290 to 365 km/s and is currently at 290 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +8 to -7 nT. The IMF Bz component was orientated
mildly southward 29/07-14UT. The Earth is expected to enter coronal
hole high speed wind streams from a pair of large coronal holes
currently crossing the solar central meridian from late in the
UT day on 31-Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22123111
Cocos Island 3 11012111
Darwin 8 -4032112
Townsville 5 21122112
Learmonth 5 21023112
Alice Springs 3 11122101
Gingin 6 22123111
Canberra 5 22123101
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12123101
Hobart 6 12123211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 22134210
Casey 16 45332122
Mawson 12 33233322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1102 3242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 6 G0
31 Jan 14 G0, chance G1 late in UT day
01 Feb 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 29 January
and is current for 31 Jan to 1 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 29-Jan. G0 geomagnetic
conditions were generally observed in the Antarctic region, with
an isolated G1 period observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected for 30-Jan. G1 periods may be experienced from late
in the UT day on 31-Jan due to coronal hole high speed solar
wind streams from a pair of coronal holes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on UT day
29-Jan. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal
on 30-Jan and most of 31-Jan. HF conditions may become mildly
degraded from late 31-Jan for middle to high latitudes due to
an expected mild increase in geomagnetic activity associated
with coronal hole wind streams. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
31 Jan 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
01 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on
29 January and is current for 29-30 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted values to
15% enhanced on UT day 29-Jan. Mild spread-F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. Hobart MUFs were 15% depressed
early in the UT day then recovered. A brief minor shortwave fadeout
was observed 29/0404-0411UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values to 15% enhanced for 30-31 Jan. A mild increase in geomagnetic
activity is expected from late 31-Jan and southern Australian
region MUFs may become mildly depressed by the end of 01-Feb.
Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list