[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 30 10:30:52 AEDT 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0408UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 173/127


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Jan was R1, with an isolated 
M1.0 flare from solar region AR3977 ( N18E57, beta) which has 
slightly grown. Solar region AR3978 (N11E72, alpha) has been 
stable and AR3976 (N12E60, beta) has shown slight development. 
These three regions are in a cluster in the northeast solar quadrant. 
Small solar region AR3974 (S16E37, beta) has shown minor growth. 
Two minor solar regions AR3975 and AR3972 have rotated off disk. 
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disk with one new unnumbered small emerging spot region located 
at approximately S05W13. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 
over 30-Jan to 01-Feb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were 
observed on UT day 29-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions 
are expected over 30-Jan to 01-Feb. No significantly Earth directed 
CMEs have been observed. A far side CME was in progress off the 
northeast solar limb at the start of the UT day. A minor narrow 
southwest CME was observed from 29/0636UT which could not be correlated 
to on disk activity. The solar wind environment on UT day 29-Jan 
was nominal. The solar wind speed was slow and steady and ranged 
from 290 to 365 km/s and is currently at 290 km/s. The peak total 
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south 
IMF (Bz) range was +8 to -7 nT. The IMF Bz component was orientated 
mildly southward 29/07-14UT. The Earth is expected to enter coronal 
hole high speed wind streams from a pair of large coronal holes 
currently crossing the solar central meridian from late in the 
UT day on 31-Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: G0

Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22123111
      Cocos Island         3   11012111
      Darwin               8   -4032112
      Townsville           5   21122112
      Learmonth            5   21023112
      Alice Springs        3   11122101
      Gingin               6   22123111
      Canberra             5   22123101
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   12123101
      Hobart               6   12123211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     8   22134210
      Casey               16   45332122
      Mawson              12   33233322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan : 
      Darwin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   1102 3242     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan     6    G0
31 Jan    14    G0, chance G1 late in UT day
01 Feb    20    G0-G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 29 January 
and is current for 31 Jan to 1 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 29-Jan. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions were generally observed in the Antarctic region, with 
an isolated G1 period observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected for 30-Jan. G1 periods may be experienced from late 
in the UT day on 31-Jan due to coronal hole high speed solar 
wind streams from a pair of coronal holes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on UT day 
29-Jan. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal 
on 30-Jan and most of 31-Jan. HF conditions may become mildly 
degraded from late 31-Jan for middle to high latitudes due to 
an expected mild increase in geomagnetic activity associated 
with coronal hole wind streams. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jan   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      132
Jan      119
Feb      116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
31 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
01 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 
29 January and is current for 29-30 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted values to 
15% enhanced on UT day 29-Jan. Mild spread-F was observed at 
Hobart during local night hours. Hobart MUFs were 15% depressed 
early in the UT day then recovered. A brief minor shortwave fadeout 
was observed 29/0404-0411UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
values to 15% enhanced for 30-31 Jan. A mild increase in geomagnetic 
activity is expected from late 31-Jan and southern Australian 
region MUFs may become mildly depressed by the end of 01-Feb. 
Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 308 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    30000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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