[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 29 10:30:50 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 1945UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Jan was R1, with an isolated
M1.7 solar flare from a returning region newly named as AR3976
(N11E65, beta). This region previously produced X-class flares
on its last rotation, however it appears to have decreased in
size since it was last seen. There are currently ten numbered
sunspots on the solar disk, however a majority of these regions
are about to rotate off the western solar limb and out of sight.
Otherwise, AR3976 and AR3977 (N18E67, beta) are currently the
only regions of interest, and are the only flare active regions.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 29-31 Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 28-Jan. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 29-31 Jan.
A CME directed to the southwest was observed from 28/0848 UT.
No activity was observed to suggest this event was frontside,
however model fits support frontside over farside. A type II
radio emission was observed at 0806 UT, further supporting frontside
origin. In either instance, this CME is not expected to reach
the Earth. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed
on UT day 28-Jan.
The solar wind environment on UT day 28-Jan was mildly disturbed.
It is possible multiple weak CMEs have arrived in the past two days,
however it is not possible to distinguish individual arrivals.
The solar wind speed was on a slow incline and ranged from near
300 to 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 10 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +5 to -8 nT. Bz was
oriented mostly southward from 0800 UT until 1800 UT. The solar wind
environment is expected to slowly return to background levels on UT
day 29-Jan, and remain so on 30-Jan. A large pair of coronal holes
may connect with the Earth by late 31-Jan to increase the solar wind speed,
however connection on 1-Feb or later is more likely.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 21123242
Cocos Island 8 21122241
Darwin 5 2112----
Townsville 11 22124233
Learmonth 10 31123242
Alice Springs 11 22123243
Gingin 13 31123252
Canberra 9 21123233
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 31124242
Hobart 12 22123343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 16 21035442
Casey 18 44343133
Mawson 13 32233432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 0012 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 12 G0
30 Jan 6 G0
31 Jan 6 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in general in
the Australian region, however Gingin observed a period of G1
on UT day 28-Jan. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 29-31 Jan, although there may be a slight chance for G1
at the very end of 31-Jan due to a pair of coronal holes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to mildly
degraded on UT day 28-Jan due to prolonged southward solar wind
conditions, particularly in the southern hemisphere. HF radio
propagation conditions may be mildly degraded on 29-Jan in high
latitudes, but overall improving. Conditions are expected to
be normal on 30-Jan. Conditions may become degraded by late 31-Jan
due to connection with a pair of coronal holes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 140 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
30 Jan 150 Near predicted monthly values to 10% enhanced
31 Jan 160 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted values. Sporadic-E was observed in
Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted values to 10-15% depressed on 29-Jan due to prolonged
southward solar wind conditions. MUFs are likely to improve to
become mildly enhanced on 30-Jan. Due to the expected onset of
a pair of coronal holes, MUFs may become depressed by the end
of 31-Jan, however it is more likely depressions will become
more pronounced by 1-Feb or later.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 296 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 19800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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