[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jan 28 10:30:50 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.6 0812UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Jan was R1, with an isolated
M2 solar flare from a returning sunspot region that is beginning
to rotate over from the eastern solar limb near N11. This region
has previously produced X-class solar flares. There are currently
ten numbered sunspots on the disk, however the bulk of them are
nearing the western limb soon to rotate away, or else are mostly
plage regions. AR3967 (S17W64, beta) has decayed some trailing
spots but grown new ones. Otherwise, all other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be
R0-R1 over 28-30 Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 27-Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 28-30 Jan.
Several CMEs were observed off the western solar limb on UT day 27-Jan,
however given their location they are not expected to be geoeffective.
No other noteworthy CMEs were observed on UT day 27-Jan.
The solar wind became perturbed from 27/1100 UT, possibly due to
the late arrival of a recent CME. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +7 to -8 nT. The solar wind remained steady near
300 km/s for the entire day, however. The solar wind is expected
to return to background levels on 28-Jan, and generally remain so
over 29-30 Jan. There is a chance for a weak CME graze on 28-Jan
due to a CME that was launched on 26-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 11322312
Cocos Island 4 21211211
Darwin 7 12212322
Townsville 8 12322322
Learmonth 9 22312323
Alice Springs 5 01221312
Gingin 5 00211322
Canberra 7 01321313
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 01322312
Hobart 7 01322312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 00223412
Casey 13 23423323
Mawson 19 32313544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 16 G0, slight chance G1 in the second half of UT
day
29 Jan 10 G0
30 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 27-Jan
in the Australian region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. There is a slight chance for G1 on the
second half of UT day 28-Jan, but otherwise G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 29-30 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 27-Jan were
generally normal, although some degradations were noted in the
northern hemisphere over the day. HF radio conditions are expected
to be generally normal over 28-30 Jan, with mildly degraded conditions
at high latitudes mid to late in the UT day 28-Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 160
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 160 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
29 Jan 160 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
30 Jan 160 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Jan were enhanced by 15-25%. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 15-20% enhanced over 28-30 Jan.
Conditions may be mildly disturbed on 28-Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 25500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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