[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 27 10:30:55 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity R0 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Jan was R0. Solar region
AR3961 (S10W86, beta) is rotating off disk with a only a small
trailer spot remaining just visible. Solar region AR3971 (N12W73,
beta) continues to decline as it approaches the north western
solar limb. A new solar region AR3974 (S16E75, alpha) has rotated
onto the solar disk and is a very small single monopole. Small
solar region AR3967 (S17W51, beta) is growing. Other regions
are small and currently there is no region of significance on
the solar disk. There are currently nine numbered regions on
the visible solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. A large 25 degree long U-shaped solar filament
located at S15E40 erupted at 26/0018UT visible in GONG and SDO
imagery. A second smaller 10 degree long solar filament eruption
was then observed at 26/0958UT located at S18E55. A very small
6 degree long filament eruption was observed at 26/1121UT located
at S10W40. A region of plasma emission is visible on the northeast
solar limb at solar latitude N10. Solar activity is expected
to be R0 over 27-Jan and R0-R1 over 28-29 Jan, with the possible
return of a previously active region to the northeast solar limb
on 28-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 26-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
27-29 Jan. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed
in LASCO or STEREO-A imagery. A southeast directed CME was observed
in association with the large filament eruption, however the
associated CME was narrow with limited expansion though reasonably
fast and mainly southeast directed. Modelling shows a possible
weak glancing blow arrival at 28/1100UT +/- 12 hours. The later
smaller filament eruption located at S18E55 was also associated
with a narrow CME to the southeast and has been modelled as an
Earth miss. The very small filament eruption at S10W40 was not
associated with a significant CME. Yesterday, two west directed
CME's were observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 25/0336UT and 25/1738UT
which are considered to be far side events as they could not be time
correlated to any on disk plasma activity/dimming. A large coronal
hole is visible in the northeast solar quadrant spanning from
the solar equator to solar middle latitudes with centre location
at N15E30. Smaller coronal hole structures are visible in the
southeast solar quadrant centred at S30E40. The solar wind on
UT day 26-Jan further declined to background levels and the interplanetary
magnetic field is currently weak. An expected CME arrival has
failed to eventuate and is now not expected, as the ACE EPAM
CME precursor channel has remained flat. The solar wind ranged
from 360 to 300 km/s and is currently at 300 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the north-south
IMF component range was +2 to -1 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 10100002
Townsville 1 11000002
Learmonth 2 12100001
Alice Springs 1 10100001
Gingin 0 10000001
Canberra 1 11000001
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11000001
Hobart 1 01100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 33320011
Mawson 5 24100002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 8 G0
28 Jan 16 G0, chance G1 second half of UT day
29 Jan 11 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. The anticipated arrival of a CME on
the UT day on 26-Jan has not eventuated and is now not expected
to arrive. G0 conditions are generally expected over 27-29 Jan.
G1 periods are possible mid to late on 28-Jan due to a possible
weak glancing blow CME arrival associated with a recent solar
filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 26-Jan were
generally normal. The anticipated CME arrival on 26-Jan did not
eventuate and is now not expected. HF radio propagation conditions
are generally expected to be normal over 27-29 Jan. There is
a chance for mildly degraded conditions at high latitudes mid
to late in the UT day on 28-Jan due to a possible weak glancing
blow CME arrival.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 156
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
28 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
29 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Jan were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced. The CME arrival expected on 26-Jan has not eventuated
and is now not expected. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 27-29 Jan. Mildly degraded
HF conditions may be experienced during local night hours for
the southern Australian region on 28-Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 50900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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