[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jan 26 10:30:53 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 182/135
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity R0 R0 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Jan was R0. Solar region
AR3961 (S10W73, beta) is approaching the southwest solar limb
and its trailer spots have now almost completely decayed, with
the large leader spot remaining mostly stable. Solar region AR3971
(N12W60, beta) is also in decline. Other regions are small. Solar
region AR3961 produced several C class flares, the largest a
C6.6 at 25/0022UT. Solar region AR3971 produced an isolated C
class flare. New small solar region AR3973 (N19W00, beta) which
emerged yesterday has slowed in growth. There are currently 8
numbered regions on the visible solar disk. Solar region AR3959
which consisted mainly of a large spot has rotated off disk over
the northwest solar limb. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar plasma arch activity on the southeast
solar limb at solar latitude S20 has reduced over the past 24
hours. A small area of plasma emission is visible on the northeast
solar limb at solar latitude N10. Solar activity is expected
to be R0 over 26-27 Jan and R0-R1 on 28-Jan, with the possible
return of a previously active region to the northeast limb on
28-Jan, and a possible new solar region behind the southeast
limb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT
day 25-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 26-28 Jan. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been
observed in LASCO or STEREO-A imagery. Several very minor faint
CMEs to the west were observed in LASCO C2 from late in the UT
day on 24-Jan and early in the UT day on 25-Jan, possibly associated
with minor C class flare activity and narrow plasma sprays from
AR3961, however these minor CMEs were not visible in LASCO C3
and are considered insignificant due to their faintness, lack
of propagation and the far western longitude location of AR3961.
Yesterdays M2.7 flare from AR3961 did not appear to have an associated
CME of any significance. A coronal hole spanning from the solar
equator to solar middle latitudes is at solar longitude E45.
The solar wind on UT day 25-Jan further declined as the recent
influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream abated. The solar
wind ranged from 440 to 360 km/s and is currently at 360 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5
nT and the north-south IMF component range was +4 to -3 nT. The
second CME arrival expected for mid to late in the UT day on
25-Jan has not yet eventuated. The ACE EPAM CME precursor data
channel has remained flat in the past 24 hours suggesting this
CME will possibly arrive later than modelled or be a weaker less
direct impact. Confidence in the arrival of this second CME is
now reduced.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11000201
Cocos Island 1 11010100
Darwin 2 11101201
Townsville 3 21101201
Learmonth 2 11000201
Alice Springs 1 10000201
Gingin 2 20000201
Canberra 1 11000100
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11000200
Hobart 2 11101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 10 23432211
Mawson 7 23212212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1120 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 17 Initially G0, chance G1 later in UT day
27 Jan 17 G1 periods possible early in UT day, then G0
28 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. The anticipated arrival of a second
CME on the UT day on 25-Jan has not eventuated. This CME may
arrive later and induce weaker geomagnetic activity, with G1
periods possible from late 26-Jan to early 27-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
27 Jan Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 25-Jan were
generally normal. The anticipated CME arrival on 25-Jan did not
eventuate, with a weaker/later arrival now expected. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to be initially normal on
25-Jan then becoming mildly degraded for middle to high latitudes
late in the UT day on 26-Jan and early in the UT day on 27-Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 12 was issued
on 23 January and is current for 24-26 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 25-Jan were near predicted
monthly values. Mild spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. Sporadic E was observed at Townsville and Brisbane.
The CME arrival expected on 25-Jan has not yet eventuated. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values. Mildly degraded
HF conditions may be experienced on 27-Jan if CME induced geomagnetic
activity eventuates.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 93000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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