[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jan 25 10:30:56 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.7 2104UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 205/156
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 205/156 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Jan was R1 due to an M2.7
flare from solar region AR3961 (S10W60, beta). The flare was
from the large leader spot in this region and the trailer spots
of AR3961 have continued to decay. This region is approaching
the western solar limb. AR3971 (N12W46, beta-gamma) produced
C class flares. Other regions are relatively small. Minor region
AR3967 (S17W25, beta) also produced C class flare activity. There
are currently 8 numbered regions on the visible solar disk. Currently
the eastern solar hemisphere is devoid of significant solar regions,
with a new unnumbered small region emerging in the northeast
solar quadrant. Solar plasma arches were observed in SDO imagery
during the interval 24/1100-1300UT on the southeast solar limb
at solar latitude S20 suggesting a region may soon rotate onto
the disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 25-27 Jan. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 24-Jan. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 25-27 Jan.
No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed in LASCO
imagery. A bright non Earth directed CME was observed off the
southeast solar limb from 24/1224UT, probably in association
with the southeast solar limb plasma arch activity observed in
SDO imagery. A very faint west directed CME was observed from
24/2024UT preceding the M2.7 flare event. This CME could not
be time correlated to on disk activity. Subsequent LASCO imagery
will be checked for any possible CME associated with the M2.7
flare though the far western location of AR3961 would greatly
reduce any geomagnetic effectiveness. A coronal hole spanning
from the solar equator to solar middle latitudes is at solar
longitude E60. The solar wind on UT day 24-Jan was moderately
elevated and steady with a slight declining trend. The solar
wind ranged from 487 to 418 km/s and is currently at 460 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component range was +5 to -4 nT. The
first CME arrival expected for mid to late in the UT day on 24-Jan
has not eventuated. The ACE EPAM CME precursor data channel has
remained flat in the past 24 hours suggesting this CME may have
missed the Earth. Another CME arrival is expected on 25-Jan,
which may arrive later than initially expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12212012
Cocos Island 3 -2112001
Darwin 3 11102112
Townsville 6 12212113
Learmonth 4 21112112
Alice Springs 4 12202012
Gingin 5 22112022
Canberra 4 12212012
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22213012
Hobart 5 12213012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 12312002
Casey 20 45532222
Mawson 15 23423234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2101 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 28 G1-G2
26 Jan 18 G1
27 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 23 January
and is current for 24-25 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 24-Jan. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The anticipated
glancing blow CME arrival expected mid to late in the UT day
on 24-Jan has not eventuated. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to increase to G1-G2 on 25-Jan as another CME arrival is expected.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline on 26-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Fair Fair-poor
26 Jan Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 24-Jan were
fair to normal. The anticipated CME arrival on 24-Jan did not
eventuate. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
initially normal on 25-Jan then becoming degraded for middle
to high latitudes due to another expected CME arrival. Conditions
may begin improving on 26-Jan. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
26 Jan 80 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 12 was issued
on 23 January and is current for 24-26 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 24-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced for the northern Australian region
and depressed 15-20% for the southern Australian region. Spread
F and sporadic E was observed during local night hours at Hobart.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values for most
of the UT day 25-Jan and 10-20% depressed on 26-Jan, due to an
anticipated CME arrival on 25-Jan. The CME arrival expected on
24-Jan did not eventuate. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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