[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 24 10:30:50 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 215/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 215/165 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Jan was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3961 (S10W48, beta) has separated from its
main trailing region, but has began to develop a new trailing
region. AR3965 (N15W28, beta) and AR3972 (S20W07, beta) have
shown dramatic growth in the past day, but both remain relatively
small. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance for R2 over
24-26 Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 23-Jan. Mostly S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 24-26 Jan, with a slight chance for S1.
A CME directed mostly to the solar west was observed from 23/1712 UT.
This CME may have originated from AR3961 associated with a C7
flare, however it is not expected to be significantly geoeffective.
A south directed CME was observed from 23/0224 UT and an east
CME was observed from 23/0324 but neither are considered geoeffective.
The solar wind on UT day 23-Jan was generally undisturbed.
The solar wind ranged from 455 to 514 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component range was +3 to -6 nT. The solar wind
is expected to be initially at background levels on 24-Jan, before
becoming disturbed in the second half of the day due to an anticipated
CME arrival. A second arrival is expected on 25-Jan continuing
the disturbance, which may linger into 26-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11112322
Cocos Island 5 -1202320
Darwin 5 12101322
Townsville 6 12112322
Learmonth 6 22112321
Alice Springs 5 11102322
Gingin 9 20113432
Canberra 5 01102322
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 -2113332
Hobart 8 22213322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
Macquarie Island 9 12114331
Casey 21 34532433
Mawson 33 54323654
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 32322113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 20 G0-G1
25 Jan 28 G1-G2
26 Jan 16 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 23 January
and is current for 24-25 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 23-Jan. G0-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected initially on UT day 24-Jan, reaching
G1 by the second half due to an anticipated impact from a CME.
Conditions are expected to increase to G2 on 25-Jan as a second
impact is expected. There may be a very slight chance for brief
G3 conditions, however this may be dependent on sustained southward
Bz conditions. Geomagnetic activity is expected to quieten on
26-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair
26 Jan Normal-fair Normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 23-Jan were
generally normal, with some depressions in the southern hemisphere.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal initially
on 24-Jan, but trending to degraded due to an anticipated impact
from a CME. Degradations are expected to continue into 25-Jan
as a second impact is expected. Conditions may begin improving
on 26-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible through the period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed
25 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
26 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 12 was issued
on 23 January and is current for 24-26 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 23-Jan were near predicted
monthly values. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 10-20% depressed over 24-26 Jan, with depressions worsening
throughout the period. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 80500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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