[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 23 10:30:49 AEDT 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    1109UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 214/165


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     R0-R1, chance R2   R0-R1, chance R2   R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            215/165            210/161

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Jan was R1, with an isolated 
long duration M1.3 flare from AR3961 (S10W35, beta). This region 
also produced a long duration C7 flare. There are currently eight 
numbered sunspots on the disk, with AR3961 maintaining being 
the most magnetically complex region albeit beginning to decay. 
AR3962 (N18W25, beta), AR3967 (S14E02, beta), AR3969 (S06E19, 
beta) and AR3971 (N16W05, beta) has shown minor growth over the 
past day. Solar activity is expected to be R)-R1 with a chance 
for R2 over 23-25 Jan. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 22-Jan.
 S0 solar radiation storm conditions, with a slight chance of S1 are
 expected over 23-25 Jan. 

A CME directed to the south was observed from 0848 UT, but has assessed 
to be farside and therefore not Earth directed. A CME was observed 
from 1124 UT that was associated with a long duration M1.3 flare 
from AR3961. This CME is expected to arrive on 25-Jan.

 The solar wind on UT day 22-Jan was near background levels. The peak total 
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south 
IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed 
was on a slow decline ranging from 531 to 420 km/s. The solar 
wind is expected to be at background levels on 23-Jan, before 
becoming disturbed over 24-25 Jan due to an anticipated CME arrival.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: G0

Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222212
      Cocos Island         3   11221101
      Darwin               5   21222102
      Townsville           6   21222222
      Learmonth            6   22222212
      Alice Springs        5   21222202
      Gingin               7   22122213
      Canberra             5   22221112
      Kennaook Cape Grim   7   22------
      Hobart               7   22331112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     7   22332111
      Casey               24   35553222
      Mawson              21   45333324

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1211 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan     8    G0
24 Jan    20    G0-G1, chance G2
25 Jan    28    G1-G2, very slight chance G3

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 21 January 
and is current for 24-25 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region on UT day 22-Jan. G0-G1 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected on 23-Jan. A CME is expected to arrive 
in the second half of 24-Jan and expected to induce G1 activity, 
continuing into 25-Jan. Another CME arrival is expected on 25-Jan 
due to a CME first seen on 22-Jan, and is expected to induce 
G2 geomagnetic activity.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 22-Jan were 
generally normal, with some mild degradations during local nighttime 
hours at most latitudes. Mild depressions may have been observed 
in the southern hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are 
expected to be normal on 23-Jan. Conditions may become degraded 
in the second half of 24-Jan continuing to 25-Jan due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jan   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      132
Jan      119
Feb      116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan   115    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed
25 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 
21 January and is current for 21-23 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted values on 
UT day 22-Jan. Sporadic-E was observed in Townsville during local 
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values on 
23-Jan. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 10-15% 
depressed over 24-25 Jan due to expected geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 564 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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