[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 23 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1109UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 214/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 215/165 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Jan was R1, with an isolated
long duration M1.3 flare from AR3961 (S10W35, beta). This region
also produced a long duration C7 flare. There are currently eight
numbered sunspots on the disk, with AR3961 maintaining being
the most magnetically complex region albeit beginning to decay.
AR3962 (N18W25, beta), AR3967 (S14E02, beta), AR3969 (S06E19,
beta) and AR3971 (N16W05, beta) has shown minor growth over the
past day. Solar activity is expected to be R)-R1 with a chance
for R2 over 23-25 Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 22-Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions, with a slight chance of S1 are
expected over 23-25 Jan.
A CME directed to the south was observed from 0848 UT, but has assessed
to be farside and therefore not Earth directed. A CME was observed
from 1124 UT that was associated with a long duration M1.3 flare
from AR3961. This CME is expected to arrive on 25-Jan.
The solar wind on UT day 22-Jan was near background levels. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed
was on a slow decline ranging from 531 to 420 km/s. The solar
wind is expected to be at background levels on 23-Jan, before
becoming disturbed over 24-25 Jan due to an anticipated CME arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Cocos Island 3 11221101
Darwin 5 21222102
Townsville 6 21222222
Learmonth 6 22222212
Alice Springs 5 21222202
Gingin 7 22122213
Canberra 5 22221112
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 22------
Hobart 7 22331112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 22332111
Casey 24 35553222
Mawson 21 45333324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1211 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 8 G0
24 Jan 20 G0-G1, chance G2
25 Jan 28 G1-G2, very slight chance G3
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 21 January
and is current for 24-25 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 22-Jan. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 23-Jan. A CME is expected to arrive
in the second half of 24-Jan and expected to induce G1 activity,
continuing into 25-Jan. Another CME arrival is expected on 25-Jan
due to a CME first seen on 22-Jan, and is expected to induce
G2 geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 22-Jan were
generally normal, with some mild degradations during local nighttime
hours at most latitudes. Mild depressions may have been observed
in the southern hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are
expected to be normal on 23-Jan. Conditions may become degraded
in the second half of 24-Jan continuing to 25-Jan due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed
25 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on
21 January and is current for 21-23 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted values on
UT day 22-Jan. Sporadic-E was observed in Townsville during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values on
23-Jan. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 10-15%
depressed over 24-25 Jan due to expected geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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