[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 22 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 1037UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 225/175
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 225/175 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Jan was R1 due to an M3.3
flare from solar region AR3967 (S14E18, beta-gamma) which has
shown growth over the past 24 hours and this region currently
consists of several small spots. Large solar region AR3961 (S10W19,
beta-gamma) has increased in overall longitudinal extent but
exhibits a more open spot configuration. The trailer spots show
significant decay and intermediate spots show some decline/redistribution
with the growing intermediate penumbral area now a finger like
extension between the trailer and leader spots. The three umbras
in the main leader spot of AR3961 have converged. Overall this
region's recent evolution is suggesting decay. Solar region AR3959
(N19W41, beta) which consist mainly of a large spot has shown
some decay in its surrounding penumbra. A recent medium sized
region of interest AR3964 (N11W86, beta) is rotating over the
northwest solar limb and very small region AR3968 which recently
showed some growth and produced yesterday's minor C6.3 flare
has rotated over the southwest solar limb. Plasma ejecta was
observed off the northern polar limb in GOES SUVI 304 imagery
from 21/0441UT and was also observed to the southeast from 21/1053UT.
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. Other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R1, chance R2 over 22-24 Jan. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 21-Jan. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 22-24 Jan. A partially Earth
directed CME has been observed. A CME to the southeast was observed
from 21/0924UT associated with the M3.3 flare and the southeast
directed plasma ejecta. Modelling of this mainly southeast CME
was difficult due to a data gap 21/1000-1500UT in LASCO C2/C3
imagery and was conducted mainly using STEREO-A coronagraph imagery
and shows an Earth arrival time of 24/2100UT +/- 12 hours with the
bulk of the CME missing the Earth. A north directed CME was observed
from 21/0348UT probably associated with the plasma ejecta from
the northern solar limb and is directed away from the Earth out
of the ecliptic plane. A narrow CME was observed to the southwest
from 21/0848UT and is considered a behind the limb event possibly
from AR3968 which has recently rotated off disk. The solar wind
environment on UT day 21-Jan declined as coronal hole wind stream
influences reduced. The solar wind speed ranged from 670 to 500
km/s, and is currently near 500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +3 to -4 nT. The IMF Bz component was very mildly
southwards 21/1654-2204UT. The solar wind speed is expected to
continue to decline over 22-23 Jan. A weak solar wind shock arrival
is expected mid to late 24-Jan from the M3/CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22222232
Cocos Island 4 21111121
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 9 22222332
Alice Springs 6 22221222
Gingin 11 32222342
Canberra 7 22222222
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 22222232
Hobart 8 22222232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 22222321
Casey 25 55523233
Mawson 39 34532375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 3322 5332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 11 G0
23 Jan 8 G0
24 Jan 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 21-Jan. In the Antarctic region Macquarie Island
was at G0, Casey was G1 for the first half of the UT day and
Mawson briefly reached G3. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 22-23 Jan as coronal hole effects decline. A glancing blow
CME arrival is expected late in the UT day on 24-Jan with G1
periods possible late 24-Jan and first half of 25-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 21-Jan were
fair to normal, with some mild degradations at middle to high
latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
normal over 22-23 Jan. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced
at middle to high latitudes from late 24-Jan and into 25-Jan
due to a possible glancing blow CME arrival. Isolated minor fadeouts
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-40%.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 15-20% early in the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 125 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 125 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on
21 January and is current for 21-23 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 21-Jan varied from
15-20% depressed in the southern Australian region during the
local day to 20-40% enhanced in the northern Australian region.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values for 22-24
Jan as the recent mild increase in geomagnetic activity from
a coronal hole wind stream has now declined. Depressed MUFs may
be experienced on 25-Jan due to a possible glancing blow CME
arrival late in the UT day on 24-Jan. Isolated minor fadeouts
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 591 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 218000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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