[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jan 21 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 230/180
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 225/175 225/175
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Jan was R0. Solar region
AR3961 (S10W06, beta-gamma) is currently the largest region on
the solar disk but has been recently flare quiet. The trailer
spots of this region have redistributed with an increase in separation,
along with growth in intermediate penumbral area and the umbral
area of the leader spot appears to have also reduced/redistributed,
possibly indicating this region is in initial decay. Other regions
of note, medium sized region AR3959 (N19W28, beta) which consists
mainly of a large spot and AR3964 (N11W73, beta-gamma) which
is approaching the western solar limb, have also been generally
stable and relatively flare quiet with AR3959 producing a single
C class flare. More minor solar region AR3968 (S18W79, beta)
produced several C class flares, the largest a C6.3 at 20/1315UT.
Small solar regions AR3965 (N16E16, beta) and AR3969 (S06E49,
beta) have shown minor growth. There are currently ten numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. Other regions are either stable
or in decay. A 10 degree long solar filament located at S05E40
partially erupted at 20/0525UT, with the small filament appearing
to erupt then reform. Another small 8 degree long solar filament
located at S15E35 erupted at 20/1946UT. Solar activity is expected
to be R1-R2 over 21-23 Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 20-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 21-23 Jan. No significantly Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. A minor southeast non Earth directed
CME was just becoming visible from 20/2112UT in LASCO C2 imagery
probably in association with the second small filament eruption.
The solar wind environment on UT day 20-Jan was moderate to strong
due to the ongoing influence of a coronal hole wind stream, with
an increase in wind speed observed during the second half of
the UT day. The solar wind speed ranged from 660 to 460 km/s,
and is currently near 660 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +9 to -7 nT with the IMF Bz component frequently
oscillating southwards. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
moderately elevated on 21-Jan then with an overall gradual declining
trend over 22-23 Jan. A CME from 18-Jan may have a weak glancing
impact on 21-Jan, but this is mostly expected to pass ahead of
the Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 33324222
Cocos Island 6 22222221
Darwin 12 33324222
Townsville 14 33334232
Learmonth 17 33335322
Alice Springs 12 33324222
Gingin 15 43324232
Canberra 14 33324332
Kennaook Cape Grim 20 34435322
Hobart 20 34435322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 28 34346442
Casey 40 56654332
Mawson 31 45545433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1233 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 14 G0, chance G1
22 Jan 11 G0, slight chance of G1
23 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Jan, with a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity from a coronal hole wind stream. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are generally expected over 21-23 Jan, with a chance for G1 periods
on 21-Jan due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
22 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 20-Jan were
fair to normal, with some mild degradations during local night
hours at middle to high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be fair to normal 21-Jan with an improving trend
22-23 Jan. Isolated minor fadeouts possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20-35%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Hobart and Canberra 15-20% depressed after dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 105 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 105 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Jan were depressed 15-20% during the local
day. Sporadic-E was observed in Hobart and Niue, and spread F
was observed at Hobart overnight. Ionospheric scintillation was
observed during the interval 20/1324-1610UT at Darwin and Weipa.
MUFs are expected to be 15% depressed to near predicted monthly
on 21-22 Jan, then near predicted monthly values for 23 Jan.
Isolated minor fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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