[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 20 10:30:57 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 0332UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 234/184
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 235/185 235/185
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Jan was R1, with an isolated
M2.4 solar flare from AR3964 (N11W60, beta-gamma). There are
currently ten numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3959
(N19W17, beta) has not grown significantly in overall size but
its trailing region appears unstable. AR3961 (S10E07, beta-gamma)
is currently the most complex region on the disk; it
is showing signs of maturation as it continues to divide in to
two distinct regions. AR3964 has grown over the past day, however
given its location near the western limb analysis is becoming
restricted. AR3965 (N16W32, beta) and AR3969 (S06E60, beta) have
also shown minor growth over the past day. Solar activity is
expected to be R1-R2 with a slight chance for R3 over 20-22 Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 19-Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 20-22 Jan.
Several weak bursts of material were observed from AR3964 in
the first half of the day; directed both to the solar southwest
and northwest. Modelling does not indicate this material will
be geoeffective, however it may pass nearby the Earth on 22-Jan.
The solar wind environment on UT day 19-Jan was mostly stable.
The solar wind speed continued its slow decline out of a recent
coronal hole, and ranged from 539 to 418 km/s, and is currently
near 500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+7 to -7 nT with several periods of southward Bz. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain slightly elevated over 20-22 Jan
but continue its declining trend. A CME from 18-Jan may have
a weak glancing impact on 21-Jan, but this is mostly expected
to pass ahead of the Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 22233233
Cocos Island 8 12232232
Darwin 11 22233233
Townsville 14 23343233
Learmonth 11 22233233
Alice Springs 11 22233233
Gingin 13 22233343
Canberra 11 13233233
Kennaook Cape Grim 14 13343233
Hobart 13 23333233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
Macquarie Island 22 13455332
Casey 22 45334333
Mawson 29 24544454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2122 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 8 G0, slight chance G1
21 Jan 6 G0
22 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Jan. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected over 20-22 Jan, although there is a lingering chance
for G1 on 20-Jan as coronal hole effects slowly subside.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 19-Jan were
generally normal, with some mild degradations during local night
hours and in high latitudes. Depressions were observed in the
southern hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal but nighttime degradations are likely to
continue over 20-21 Jan before improving.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
21 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
22 Jan 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on
17 January and is current for 18-20 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 19-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Sporadic-E was observed in Hobart
and Brisbane during local day hours. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed over 19-20 Jan,
before depressions subside by 22-Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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