[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Sun Jan 19 10:30:50 AEDT 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 17/2205UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.7    0058UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.1    0307UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 222/172

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jan             20 Jan             21 Jan
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            230/180            235/185

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Jan was R1, with two M1 
level solar flares from AR3961 (S10E20, beta-delta) and AR3964 
(N11W46, beta- gamma). There are currently ten numbered sunspot 
regions on the solar disk. AR3959 (N19W00, beta-gamma) has grown 
several trailer spots, although the main region appears mostly 
unchanged. AR3961 has continued with significant growth and has 
developed a small delta spot. This region has not produced high 
level flares despite its instability, but may be reaching maturity 
as its main spots are separating. AR3964, which has produced 
several flares, has started to decay. AT3967 (S17E63, beta) has 
shown small growth over the past day. Solar activity is expected 
to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3 over 19-21 Jan. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 18-Jan. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 19-21 Jan.

 A CME directed to the northwest was observed from 18/0138 UT. 
The bulk of this CME is expected to pass above the Earth, but a weak 
glancing impact is possible on 21-Jan. No other Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed on UT day 18-Jan. 

The solar wind environment on UT day was mostly undisturbed, as the 
solar wind was on a gentle decline for most of the day. The solar wind
 speed ranged from 587 to 490 km/s and is currently near 500 km/s.
 The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and 
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +4 to -4 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to remain high but continue declining over 
19-20 Jan due to ongoing coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: G0

Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32222222
      Cocos Island         5   22111221
      Darwin               6   22122212
      Townsville           9   32223222
      Learmonth            8   32222222
      Alice Springs        6   22222211
      Gingin               8   32222222
      Canberra             6   22312112
      Kennaook Cape Grim  11   33323222
      Hobart               8   32322212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    13   32434211
      Casey               35   56643233
      Mawson              30   44444355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17   3333 3334     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jan    12    G0, chance G1
20 Jan    10    G0, slight chance G1
21 Jan     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 18-Jan. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in teh Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are 
expected over 19-21 Jan, with a slight chance ofr G1 in the first 
half of the period due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair
20 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 18-Jan were 
mildly depressed in the southern hemisphere. Conditions may have 
been degraded during local night hours. HF radio propagation 
conditions are expected to have similar conditions over 19-20 
Jan, with mild degradations during local night hours. Conditions 
are expected to improve by 21-Jan.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Jan   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      132
Jan      119
Feb      116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jan   105    20% depressed to near predicted monthly values
20 Jan   105    20% depressed to near predicted monthly values
21 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 
17 January and is current for 18-20 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted values to 
20% depressed. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values 
to 20% depressed over 19-21 Jan, although may begin improving 
by the end of the period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 529 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   187000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au