[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jan 18 10:30:50 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0212UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0320UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.0 0919UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1137UT possible lower European
M7.4 1335UT probable lower European
M2.1 1850UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.8 1949UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2205UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 227/177
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 235/185 240/189
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Jan was R2, with several
low-level M-class flares and one M7.4 flare. The M7.4 flare originated
from AR3964 (N11W33, beta-gamma-delta), and the others were a
between AR3964 and AR3961 (S10E33, beta). There are currently
eight numbered sunspots on the disk. AR3959 (N19E09, beta) has
shown some unstable changes but has generally been quiet in the
past day. AR3961 has shown significant growth, but has not yet
shown significant mixing of polarities. AR3964 has also continued
growing rapidly with the development of some weak delta spots,
but overall appears to be maturing. Solar activity is expected
to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3 over 18-20 Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 17-Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 18-20 Jan.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available imagery on UT
day 17-Jan.
The solar wind environment on UT day was mildly disturbed due to
a coronal hole. The solar wind speed increased from near 450
to near 550 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was -10 to +10 nT. The solar wind is expected to be mildly disturbed
due to continued coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 14 33323333
Cocos Island 10 32322232
Darwin 11 33322223
Townsville 14 33332333
Learmonth 14 33323333
Alice Springs 12 32322333
Gingin 15 43323333
Canberra 15 33433323
Kennaook Cape Grim 18 33433334
Hobart 17 33433324
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 20 33444423
Casey 33 45633444
Mawson 48 54644366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 2412 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 16 G0, chance G1
19 Jan 16 G0, chance G1
20 Jan 16 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 17-Jan
in the Australian region. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctica region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 18-20 Jan, with a slight chance for G1 due to ongoing
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal Fair
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal Fair
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 17-Jan were
mildly degraded at most latitudes due to ongoing coronal hole
effects. Sporadic-E and spread-F may have been observed during
local night hours. Mildly degraded conditions are expected to
continue over 18-20 Jan due to ongoing coronal hole effects,
particularly at high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 105 20% depressed to near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 105 20% depressed to near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 105 20% depressed to near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on
16 January and is current for 17-19 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were 20% depressed to 25% enhanced.
Conditions in Hobart were degraded during local night hours.
MUfs are expected to be near predicted values to 20% depressed
over 18-20 Jan, as continued coronal hole effects may impact
HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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