[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 17 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 208/159
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 210/161 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jan was R0, with no significant
solar flares. Solar region AR3694 (N11W18, beta-gamma-delta)
has emerged and rapidly grown over the past 24 hours and is now
a medium sized and magnetically complex region. Solar region
AR3959 (N19E24, beta-gamma) continues to show penumbral growth
on the eastern edge of its main large spot. Solar region AR3961
(S10E49, beta-gamma) has shown development in area and magnetic
complexity. New region AR3965 (N14E69, alpha) has rotated on
to the solar disk as a single magnetically simple spot. There
are currently six numbered sunspots on the solar disk. All other
sunspots are either stable or in decay. A broad equatorial coronal
hole is transiting the solar central meridian. A small 10 degree
long solar filament visible in GONG H-alpha imagery located at
S30W65 lifted off at 16/2124UT. Due to the far western solar
longitudinal location of this filament this event is considered
unlikely to be significant. Solar activity is expected to be
R1, chance R2 over 17-19 Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 16-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 17-19 Jan. No Earth directed CMEs were observed.
Coronagraph imagery will be checked for any CME associated with
the far southwest filament eruption. The solar wind environment
on UT day 16-Jan was moderately elevated with a slight declining
trend due to a solar wind stream from the equatorial coronal
hole. The solar wind speed ranged between 404 and 502 km/sec
and is currently at 440 km/sec. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +7 to -7 nT. Southward intervals of the IMF Bz component
were observed 16/1009-1151UT, 16/1517-1748UT and 16/1842-1907UT.
The solar wind is expected to be moderately elevated due to the
coronal hole wind stream, with a possible slight increase in
the solar wind speed over 17-18 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 23223333
Cocos Island 7 22222222
Darwin 9 22212333
Townsville 13 33223333
Learmonth 13 33222433
Alice Springs 13 33223333
Gingin 12 32223333
Canberra 11 23113333
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 23223333
Hobart 12 23223333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 17 24234441
Casey 30 45644233
Mawson 36 55434455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3332 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 15 G0, chance G1
18 Jan 15 G0, chance G1
19 Jan 15 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Jan, with mildly elevated geomagnetic activity.
In the Antarctic region G1-G2 geomagnetic periods were observed
at Casey and Mawson and G0 conditions were observed at Macquarie
Island. G0, chance G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected for
17-19 Jan due to ongoing coronal hole wind stream effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
18 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
19 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 16-Jan were
fair to normal, with mildly degraded conditions at middle to
high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be fair to normal over 17-19 Jan due to ongoing mildly elevated
geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind stream. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 15-20% early in UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 105 15% depressed to near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 105 15% depressed to near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 105 15% depressed to near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on
16 January and is current for 17-19 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on 16-Jan were depressed 15%
to near predicted monthly values. Sporadic-E was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be depressed
15% to near predicted values over 17-19 Jan due to mildly elevated
geomagnetic activity associated with a coronal hole wind stream.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list