[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 16 10:30:45 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jan was R0, with no significant
solar flares. Solar region AR3959 (N19E38, beta-gamma) exhibited
redistribution and development in the penumbra on the eastern
side of its large spot. Solar region AR3961 (S10E64, beta-gamma)
is growing. Smaller region AR3962 (N13E70, beta) has been stable.
A new spot is currently rotating onto the solar disk over the
northeast limb near solar latitude N10. The largest flare was
a C6.3 at 15/0856UT from AR3961. There are currently six numbered
sunspots on the solar disk. All other sunspots are either stable
or in decay. A broad equatorial coronal hole currently spans
across the solar central meridian. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 16-18 Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 15-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 16-18 Jan. No Earth directed CMEs were observed.
The solar wind environment on UT day 15-Jan was moderately elevated
due to a solar wind stream from the equatorial coronal hole.
The solar wind speed ranged between 420 and 500 km/sec and is
currently at 470 km/sec. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +8 to -8 nT. Due to a narrow weaker section of the
coronal hole that has already past the solar central meridian
the solar wind speed may slightly decline on 16-Jan then increase
again from 17-18 Jan from the broader secondary section of this
elongated coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 32322422
Cocos Island 8 31222321
Darwin 11 32322422
Townsville 13 33332422
Learmonth 16 42322532
Alice Springs 11 32322422
Gingin 15 43223432
Canberra 11 33322322
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 33323422
Hobart 13 33323421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 34 34635621
Casey 36 56643333
Mawson 37 56444543
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 1222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 10 G0
17 Jan 15 G0, chance G1
18 Jan 15 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Jan, with mildly elevated geomagnetic activity.
G1-G2 geomagnetic periods were observed in the Antarctic region.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 16-Jan then G0, chance
G1 for 17-18 Jan due to ongoing coronal hole wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
17 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
18 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 15-Jan were
fair to normal, with mildly degraded conditions at middle to
high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be fair to normal over 16-18 Jan due to ongoing mildly elevated
geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind stream. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 95 15% depressed to near predicted monthly values
17 Jan 105 15% depressed to near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 105 15% depressed to near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 15 January
and is current for 16 Jan only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region on 15-Jan were generally near predicted
values becoming depressed by 15-20% after local dawn this morning.
Mild spread F and strong sporadic-E was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be depressed 15% to near
predicted values over 16-18 Jan due to mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity associated with a coronal hole wind stream. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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