[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 15 10:30:50 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jan was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently nine numbered sunspots on the
solar disk, however five of them are at the limbs and not well
visible. AR3959 (M19E50, beta) is currently the largest sunspot
region and has developed a number of trailer spots in the last
day. All other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 15-17 Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 14-Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 15-17 Jan.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 14-Jan, although a majority
of them were launched from the western limb, likely from nearAR3947
(N11W77, beta). Due to the location these CMEs are not expected to
be geoeffective. A weak CME was observed from the eastern limb at
1624 UT but is also not expected to be geoeffective.
The solar wind environment on UT day 14-Jan was under the influence
of an elongated coronal hole along the solar equator. The solar wind
speed was on an incline and ranged between 420 and 520 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and
the north-south IMF component range was +8 to -7 nT. The solar
wind environment is expected to become further enhanced over
15-17 Jan due to the coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 22222233
Cocos Island 7 22222222
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 11 32222333
Learmonth 11 32232332
Alice Springs 8 22222223
Gingin 10 32222233
Canberra 9 22222233
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 23322233
Hobart 12 23322333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 23223322
Casey 30 46543333
Mawson 27 34543354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3202 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 10 G0
16 Jan 12 G0, slight chance G1
17 Jan 14 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Jan. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 15-17 Jan, although there is a chance for G1
by later in the period due to ongoing coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Jan were
normal to fair, with mildly degraded conditions in the southern
hemisphere for most of the day. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be normal to fair over 15-17 Jan due toe coronal
hole activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 130 Near predicted values to 15% depressed
16 Jan 125 Near predicted values to 15% depressed
17 Jan 125 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mear predicted values to 15% depressed. Sporadic-E
was observed in Brisbane during local daylight hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted values to 15% depressed over 15-17
Jan due to coronal hole activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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