[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Jan 14 10:30:48 AEDT 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 160/114

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jan             15 Jan             16 Jan
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Jan was R0, with no significant 
flares. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on 
the solar disk. AR3959 (N19E60, beta) has shown some growth in 
size over the past day, but all other sunspots are either stable 
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 14-16 
Jan. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT 
day 13-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected 
over 14-16 Jan. 

No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 13-Jan. Some material 
may have been ejected from near AR3947(N11W78, beta-gamma-delta) near 
the western limb, however given its location and velocity is not 
expected to make its way to Earth.

 The solar wind environment on UT day 13-Jan mildly disturbed in the first 
half of the day, but was near background levels in the second 
half. The disturbance may have been due to the onset of a coronal 
hole or a CME passing nearby. The solar wind sped was on a slight 
incline and ranged from 354 to 496 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component 
range (Bz) was +10 to - 6nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to continue to increase and remain increased over 14-16 Jan due 
to a long coronal hole spanning across just below the solar equator.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: G0

Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   33221222
      Cocos Island         7   32211222
      Darwin               7   23221222
      Townsville           8   23221232
      Learmonth           10   33221233
      Alice Springs        8   23221223
      Gingin               8   32221223
      Canberra             8   23221232
      Kennaook Cape Grim   8   33221222
      Hobart               9   33221232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    10   32241321
      Casey               27   45553323
      Mawson              28   54443444

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1121 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jan    10    G0
15 Jan    10    G0
16 Jan    10    G0

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region on UT 
day 13-Jan were G0. Geomagnetic conditions in the Antarctic region 
were G0-G1. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 14-16 
Jan. There is a chance for G1 later in the period due to an elongated 
coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Jan were 
generally normal, with some mild depressions in the southern 
hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be 
mostly normal over 14-16 Jan, with some mild degradations during 
local night hours being possible. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Jan   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      132
Jan      119
Feb      116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
15 Jan   140    15% depressed to 15% enhanced
16 Jan   140    15% depressed to 15% enhanced

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 13-Jan was near predicted values. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted values. Enhancements of 15% are possible 
during local daylight hours, but due to ongoing coronal hole 
effects some depressions of 15% are possible during local night 
hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    80800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au