[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 13 10:30:43 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Jan was at the R0 level.
A new solar region AR3959 (N19E77, alpha) has rotated onto the
solar disk, which consists of a large single spot. This regions
proximity to the eastern solar limb makes magnetic classification
somewhat uncertain, as there is a nearby area of opposite magnetic
polarity very close to the eastern edge of the large spot. Solar
region AR3947 (N11W62, beta-gamma) has remained flare quiet and
mostly stable with some minor redistribution/redevelopment in
its trailer spots and small intermediate penumbra has also appeared,
though is considered to be in continued overall decay. Very weak
mixed magnetic polarity is currently evident in AR3947's small
trailer spots. Solar region AR3956 (N08E04, beta) trailer spots
have shown decay. Recently emerging small region AR3957 (N23W34,
beta) is now decaying. There are currently seven numbered sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk. All other regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 13-15 Jan. Previously R3 flaring solar region AR3936
may return to the northeast solar limb (at solar latitude N13)
on 15-Jan. S0 solar radiation conditions were observed on 12-Jan
and are expected for 13-15 Jan. No significant Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. A narrow elongated equatorial coronal
hole is crossing the solar central meridian. The solar wind speed
on UT day 12-Jan slowly declined, ranging from 395 to 439 km/s
and is currently near 395 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -8 nT. A sustained southward (-8 nT) interval of the
Bz component was observed from 12/2200UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to be generally light on 13 Jan, increasing to moderate
due to the wind stream from the equatorial coronal hole from
late in the UT day 13-Jan/first half of 14-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11222113
Cocos Island 4 21112111
Darwin 5 11112123
Townsville 6 11222123
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 6 11122123
Gingin 5 22121112
Canberra 4 11221112
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 12222113
Hobart 6 22221113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 12143112
Casey 22 55523122
Mawson 16 34334223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 1311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 12 G0, chance G1 late in UT day
14 Jan 15 G0, chance G1
15 Jan 15 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Jan. In the Antarctic region G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed at Macquarie Island and Mawson, with
periods of G1 observed at Casey. G0, chance G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected from late in the UT day on 13-Jan, with a mild increase
in geomagnetic activity expected due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Fair Fair
15 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 12-Jan were
normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be fair
to normal over 13-15 Jan, with mildly degraded HF conditions
at middle to high latitudes over 14-15 Jan. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 153
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-50%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Darwin enhanced by 20-70% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Perth enhanced by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
14 Jan 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
15 Jan 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-Jan in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 70%
enhanced. Darwin MUFs were enhanced by up to 70% during local
night hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. Sporadic E was observed at some sites mostly during the
local day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 13-15 Jan. Mildly degraded conditions may
be experienced during local night hours for the southern Australian
region on 14-Jan. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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