[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jan 12 10:30:44 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Jan was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3947 (N11W48, beta) continues to decay with a
significant reduction in flare activity. The largest flare in
the past 24 hours was a C2.8 from minor region AR3948 (N15W77,
alpha). There are currently six numbered sunspot regions on the
visible solar disk. A new small region has emerged at N22W23.
Solar region AR3956 (N08E16, beta) has grown slightly with new
small intermediate spots now visible. Minor changes are also
evident in AR3953 (N20W54, beta) with slight growth and redistribution
in its trailer spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar plasma activity on the northeast solar limb
at solar latitude range N13-N18 suggests that a solar region
may soon rotate onto the solar disk. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Jan. S0 solar radiation conditions
were observed on 11-Jan and are expected for 12-14 Jan. No significant
Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A steeply angled out
of the ecliptic plane north-northwest directed CME first visible
in C2 from 11/0912UT is not considered geoeffective. This CME
may be associated with plasma motion visible during the interval
11/0758-0828UT in SDO304 imagery located near the northwest solar
limb at N25W80. Using this location event modelling shows a clear
Earth miss for this minor CME. A narrow equatorial coronal hole
is crossing the solar central meridian. The solar wind speed
on UT day 11-Jan was steady, ranging from 400 to 450 km/s and
is currently near 417 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be generally light over 12-13 Jan, then increasing to moderate
due to the wind stream from the equatorial coronal hole from
late in the UT day 13-Jan/first half of 14-Jan. Previously R3
flaring solar region AR3936 may return to the northeast solar
limb (at solar latitude N13) on 15-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21111211
Cocos Island 2 21110200
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 7 21212322
Learmonth 5 21------
Alice Springs 4 21112211
Gingin 3 20111211
Canberra 4 11111212
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 11212211
Hobart 4 11212211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 11133321
Casey 19 54432322
Mawson 14 43333321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 2322 3123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 8 G0
13 Jan 12 G0, chance G1 late in UT day
14 Jan 15 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Jan. In the Antarctic region G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed at Macquarie Island and Mawson, with
a period of G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 12-13 Jan, with a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity expected from late 13-Jan due to a coronal hole wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 11-Jan were
fair to normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 12-13 Jan, with mildly degraded HF conditions
at middle to high latitudes from late 13-Jan and on 14-Jan. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Generally near predicted monthly values.
Some sites depressed 15% early in the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on
10 January and is current for 10-12 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-Jan in the Australian region were depressed
15% to near predicted monthly values in southern Australia to
30% enhanced in northern Australia. Spread F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 12-14 Jan. Mildly degraded conditions
may be experienced during local night hours for the southern
Australian region on 14-Jan. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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