[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jan 11 10:30:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jan was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3947 (N11W34, beta-gamma) is currently the most
magnetically complex region on the solar disk, though this region
is in overall decay. This region may retain a small weak delta
magnetic configuration it its declining trailer spots. The largest
flare in the past 24 hours was a C9.9 (almost R1) flare at 10/2246UT
from the trailer spots of region AR3947. A C6.1 flare was observed
at 10/0942UT from minor region AR3951 (S13W50, beta), with an
associated small five degree long solar filament eruption located
at S12W50, visible in Learmonth GONG solar imagery at 10/0932UT.
The small filament eruption is not considered significant due
to the western longitude location of W50 and the small size of
the filament. Solar region AR3945 (S07W57, alpha) also produced
a low level C class flare. Solar regions AR3956 (N08E31, beta)
and AR3953 (N20W41, beta) are growing though the rate of growth
has now slowed. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1 levels
over 11-13 Jan. No LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph imagery was available
for 10-Jan. STEREO-A coronagraph imagery was available up to
10/1238UT and no CME appeared evident from the small filament
eruption. An equatorial coronal hole is approaching the solar
central meridian. This hole is wide in longitudinal extent and
narrow in latitudinal extent. The solar wind speed on UT day
10-Jan slightly increased early in the UT day, ranging from 379
to 480 km/s and is currently near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be light to moderate over 11-12 Jan, then increasing to moderate
due to the wind stream from the equatorial coronal hole late
in the UT day on 13-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22133023
Cocos Island 7 22123122
Darwin 7 22123023
Townsville 10 22133133
Learmonth 9 22133123
Alice Springs 8 22133023
Gingin 8 22123123
Canberra 9 13223033
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 13233033
Hobart 10 13233033
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Macquarie Island 13 23244222
Casey 24 45543223
Mawson 20 24444234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1122 4311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 5 G0
12 Jan 8 G0
13 Jan 12 G0, chance G1 late in the UT day
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Jan. In the Antarctic region G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed at Macquarie Island and Mawson, with
periods of G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 11-12 Jan, then a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity expected from late 13-Jan due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 10-Jan were
normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 11-12 Jan, with mildly degraded HF conditions at
middle to high latitudes from 13-Jan. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on
10 January and is current for 10-12 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Jan in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced in northern Australia. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 11-13 Jan. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 58700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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