[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Jan 10 10:30:50 AEDT 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0026UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 162/116

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Jan was at the R1 level 
due to an M1.1 flare at 09/0026UT produced by AR3947 (N11W21, 
beta-gamma-delta). There are currently eight numbered sunspot 
regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. 
AR3947 is the largest and most magnetically complex region on 
the disk and has shown decay in its intermediate spots. AR3953 
(N20W29, beta) has exhibited spot development over the UT day. 
AR3948 (N17W41, alpha) and AR3951 (S13W36, beta) have both shown 
spot growth. Two unnumbered regions recently appeared near N07E43 
(beta) and S33W37 (alpha). Both these regions have exhibited 
spot growth since appearing on the disk. All other sunspot regions 
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to 
be at R1-R2 levels over 10-12 Jan. No Earth-directed CMEs have 
been observed. A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha 
imagery near N23W04 at 09/1017UT. Any associated CME will be 
modelled once sufficient coronagraph imagery becomes available. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Jan mildly declined, ranging 
from 345 to 415km/s and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -10 nT. A sustained 
period of southward IMF conditions was observed from 09/0710-1325UT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels 
over 10-12 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: G0

Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   21234222
      Cocos Island         6   11123221
      Darwin               7   10124222
      Townsville          10   21234213
      Learmonth           12   11135321
      Alice Springs        8   20224222
      Gingin              10   20134322
      Canberra             8   11224222
      Kennaook Cape Grim  10   21234222
      Hobart              10   21234222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    19   11146422
      Casey               19   45333323
      Mawson              17   33235421

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2110 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan     8    G0
11 Jan     5    G0
12 Jan     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 09-Jan, with an isolated period of G1 observed 
at Learmonth. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 observed 
at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 
10-12 Jan.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 09-Jan were 
normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal over 10-12 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Jan   163

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      132
Jan      119
Feb      116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan   155    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Jan   155    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan   155    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-Jan in 
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 25% 
enhanced in northern Australia. Spread F was observed at Hobart 
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 10-12 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    80300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au