[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 9 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 07/2305UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed, the largest of which was
a C9.8 at 08/0637UT produced by AR3950 (S18E15, alpha). There
are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3947 (N11W06, beta-gamma-delta)
is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk
and has shown decay in its intermediate spots over the UT day.
An unnumbered region recently appeared near N26W31 (beta) and
has shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 09-11 Jan. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 08-Jan decreased, ranging from 380
to 505 km/s and is currently near 410 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline toward background levels over 09-11 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22212211
Cocos Island 3 22111200
Darwin 4 12201211
Townsville 6 22212221
Learmonth 5 22212211
Alice Springs 4 22201211
Gingin 6 32212210
Canberra 5 22202211
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 23212211
Hobart 6 23212211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 22103210
Casey 19 45432322
Mawson 18 54413322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1222 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 5 G0
10 Jan 5 G0
11 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 09-11 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 08-Jan were
normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 09-11 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on
6 January and is current for 7-9 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 08-Jan in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 09-11 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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