[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 8 10:30:48 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 2306UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 7-Jan was R1, with an isolated
R1 flare on the western limb. There are currently seven numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3947 (N12E06, beta-gamma-delta)
remains the most complex region on the disk and has continued to grow.
Other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Despite a quiet
day, AR3947 still has the potential for further high level solar
flares. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 8-10 Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 7-Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 8-10 Jan.
Two CMEs were observed from the solar north-northwest limb from
7/0700 UT. None of these events are expected to be geoeffective.
A weak CME directed to the south was observed from 1038 UT and
may have a weak glance on 11-Jan. There is some weak emission
from AR3947 from around the same time as this CME, and this may
also arrive at Earth on 11-Jan, although this does not have a
high likelihood. No other CMEs were observed on UT day 07-Jan.
The solar wind environment on UT day 7-Jan was mostly at background
levels. There was a brief disturbance at 0400 UT, possibly due
to the passing by of a CME from 4-Jan. The solar wind speed ranged
from 628 km/s to near 500 km/s. The peak total solar wind strength
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +8 to -6 nT. The solar wind is expected to be near background
levels over 8-10 Jan, with the solar wind speed on a declining
trend.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 22233322
Cocos Island 6 22222310
Darwin 8 22223312
Townsville 11 23233322
Learmonth 10 22233313
Alice Springs 9 23223312
Gingin 10 22223422
Canberra 11 22333322
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 23333322
Hobart 13 23333323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 23 23554422
Casey 42 47643423
Mawson 34 45543633
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 3333 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 6 G0
09 Jan 5 G0
10 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 7-Jan. G0-G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 8-10 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 7-Jan were
generally normal. The southern hemisphere was mildly degraded
throughout the day. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 8-10 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 145 Near predicted values to 15% enhanced
09 Jan 145 Near predicted values to 15% enhanced
10 Jan 145 Near predicted values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on
6 January and is current for 7-9 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 7-Jan were both enhanced and depressed in the
northern Australian region and near predicted values in the southern
region. Conditions were degraded in Brisbane during local daylight
hours. Sporadic-E was common at most sites during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 8-10 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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