[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jan 7 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: R`
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.1 0152UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.4 0350UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.8 1624UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance G3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 6-Jan was R1, with 3 solar
flares, all from AR3947 (N11E15, beta-gamma-delta), the largest
being M4.9. There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3947 remains the most magnetically complex
and flare active region on the disk, and has continued to grow.
AR3945 (S07W07, beta) has also shown some growth over the past
day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R-R2 with a chance for R3 over
7-9 Jan.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery
on UT day 6-Jan.
The 10 MeV protons continued declining on UT day 6-Jan and are
currently near 0.5 pfu.
Mostly S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
7-9 Jan, with a chance for further S1 events. The solar wind
environment on UT day 6-Jan was near background levels, with
speeds on a gentle decline as a recent coronal hole wind
stream abates. The Solar wind speed ranged from 484 to 609 km/s,
and was generally near 550 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind environment is expected
to be near background levels over 7-9 Jan. There is a chance
for a disturbance early on 7-Jan due to a recent first observed
on 4-Jan, although this CME is mostly expected to pass ahead of the Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 23222322
Cocos Island 6 23122210
Darwin 8 23221322
Townsville 9 23222322
Learmonth 9 22232322
Alice Springs 9 23222322
Gingin 8 32222312
Canberra 8 23232221
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 23332221
Hobart 10 23332222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 13 23343321
Casey 34 56633323
Mawson 37 55544445
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 3123 3442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 8 G0, chance G1
08 Jan 6 G0
09 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditionswere observed in the Australian
region on UT day 6-Jan. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 7-9 Jan. There is a slight chance for a glancing blow early
on 07-Jan, although it is expected this CME will pass ahead of
the Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2220UT 04/01, Ended at 0930UT 05/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 6-Jan were
mostly normal, with some mild degradations in the northern hemisphere
during local night hours. Some polar cap absorption may have
been observed at high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 7-9 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 159
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 145 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan 145 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan 145 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on
6 January and is current for 7-9 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted values to
15% enhanced on UT day 6-Jan. Some spread-F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values to 10-15% enhanced over 7-9 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 576 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 242000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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