[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 6 10:30:47 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.1 0239UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.1 0718UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M4.1 0936UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.5 1537UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 172/126 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Jan was R1 due to M class
flares from AR3947 (N11E32, beta-delta). The magnetic complexity
of this region has slightly reduced. Small spots have emerged
to the northeast of the trailer spots of this region and its
intermediate spots appear to have slightly declined/redistributed.
There are currently twelve numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R1, chance R2 over 06-08 Jan.
An S1-Minor solar radiation storm was observed during the interval
04/2220UT-05/0930UT with a peak flux of 20PFU at 05/0055UT. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 06-08 Jan.
No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed on 05-Jan.
Yesterday's west directed CME at 04/1512UT associated with solar
filament flare activity which was modelled as an Earth miss,
was followed by a faster CME visible from 04/1848UT. These two
CMEs appear to be part of the same solar disk event observed
over the interval 04/1444-1920UT, with a C7.6 flare observed
from AR3939 (S17W60, alpha) at 04/1827UT toward the end of this
interval. This later CME was modelled to be quite fast with a
speed of 1587km/sec, however the far western disk location at
S17W60 has resulted in an modelled Earth miss. The solar wind
speed ranged between 687 to 540 km/s and is currently at 540km/s
with a declining trend as the influence of a coronal hole wind
stream gradually declines. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +7 to -8 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 22333332
Cocos Island 10 22223332
Darwin 11 22333232
Townsville 16 -4333333
Learmonth 15 32333343
Alice Springs 12 22333332
Gingin 16 32324343
Canberra 11 22323332
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 22333342
Hobart 13 23333332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie Island 22 33345442
Casey 37 56543444
Mawson 47 44545753
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 39 2555 4563
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 14 G0, chance G1
07 Jan 10 G0
08 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 4 January
and is current for 4-6 Jan. In the Australian region on UT day
05-Jan G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed. In the Antarctic
region G1 conditions were observed at Macquarie Island, G2 conditions
were observed at Casey and G3 conditions were observed at Mawson.
G0, chance G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected for 06-Jan
with G0 conditions over 07-08 Jan as coronal hole wind stream
effects decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2220UT 04/01, Ended at 0930UT 05/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 05-Jan were poor
to fair with ionospheric depressions at middle to high latitudes
and mildly increased absorption of 1db observed in Antarctic
riometers early in the UT day at high latitudes in association
with an S1-Minor solar radiation storm which has now ended. Fair
to normal conditions are expected for 06-08 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Generally near predicted monthly values.
Darwin enhanced by up to 30% local night.
Townsville 15% depressed during the local day.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15-20% during local day.
Perth near predicted monthly values.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Mild increase in absorption observed 05/00-08UT.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Jan 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on
3 January and is current for 4-6 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 05-Jan in the Australian region were variable
with southeast coast sites depressed 15-20%, southwest coast
sites and northern Australian sites generally near predicted
monthly values, with Darwin enhanced by 30% during the local
night and Townsville 15% depressed during the local day. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic E
was observed at east coast Australian sites. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced as recent
mild geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind stream has
now declined. Shortwave fadeouts were observed at 05/0223-0318UT
and 05/0710-0757UT. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 260000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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