[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 January 25 issued 2348 UT on 04 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jan 5 10:48:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.1 03/2241UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
M7.6 0518UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
X1.8 1248UT probable all European
M2.1 2326UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 209/160
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 195/147 195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Jan was R3 due to an X1.8
class flare from AR3947 (N11E46, beta-gamma-delta) at 04/1248UT.
This region also produced an R2 M7.6 flare at 04/0518UT and the
M2.1 flare at 04/2336UT along with several C class flares, the
largest a C9.1 at 04/0852UT. Solar regions AR3943 (S15E10, beta-gamma)
and AR3941 (S04W51, beta) produced C class flares. Solar region
AR3947 is slowly developing. Region AR3941 is showing decline
in its trailer spots. Regions AR3944 (S14W05, beta) and AR3945
(S09E35, beta) are showing slight growth but did not produce
significant flare activity. There are currently thirteen numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Localised plasma motion was observed
during the interval 04/1444-1920UT in GOES SUVI imagery at S15W55.
In GONG H-alpha imagery (Cerro Tololo) solar filament activity
and flaring is visible during the interval 04/1416-1936UT along
neutral lines around and between solar regions AR3939 (S17W58,
beta) and AR3941 (S04W51, beta). Solar activity is expected to
be R1-R2 over 05-07 Jan. An S1 solar solar proton event began
at 04/2235UT probably in association with the X1.8 flare. S1
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 05-Jan, then
declining over 06-07 Jan. No significantly Earth directed CMEs
have been observed. A northwest directed CME was observed from
04/0600UT. This CME could not be time correlated to on disk activity
and is currently presumed to be a far side CME. A northeast CME
was observed from 04/1352UT following the X1.8 flare at 04/1248UT.
This has been modelled as an Earth miss. A west directed CME
was observed from 04/1512UT. This CME has been paired with the
solar filament activity in the southwest quadrant and has also
been modelled as an Earth miss, passing ahead of the Earth. A
review of yesterdays coronagraph imagery showed that the X1.1
flare at 03/2241UT was associated with a eastward non Earth directed
minor very slow faint CME from 03/2312UT and this CME is visible
in coronagraph imagery early in the UT day on 04-Jan. The earlier
X1.2 flare at 03/1139UT showed an insignificant very faint weak
and slow CME from 03/1212UT also directed to the east and only
visible in C2 imagery. Both these very minor CMEs were modelled
as a clear Earth miss, passing well behind the Earth. Coronal
holes are visible in the northwest solar quadrant (centre at
N12W30) and southwest solar quadrant (centre at S30W35). The
solar wind speed ranged between 650 to 430 km/s and is currently
at 650km/s with a gradual increasing trend in speed and a corresponding
decline in solar wind density suggesting the Earth has entered
a coronal hole wind stream(s). The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 18 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +13 to -15 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: G1
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 25 24553343
Cocos Island 12 23432231
Darwin 18 34442333
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 26 34553442
Alice Springs 24 35543333
Gingin 21 24443352
Canberra 26 25552343
Kennaook Cape Grim 32 25553453
Hobart 38 25663353
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 54 25753663
Casey 69 67843343
Mawson 42 45663453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1331 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 18 G0-G1
06 Jan 16 G0-G1
07 Jan 12 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 4 January
and is current for 4-6 Jan. In the Australian region on UT day
04-Jan G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed as the Earth entered
a coronal hole wind stream. In the Antarctic region G3 conditions
were observed at Macquarie Island, G4 conditions were observed
at Casey and G2 conditions were observed at Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 05-06 Jan due to coronal hole wind
stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 04 01 2025 2220UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Fair Poor(PCA)
06 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 04-Jan were normal
to fair with ionospheric depressions at middle to high latitudes
and increased absorption observed late in the UT at high latitudes.
Moderately depressed/degraded conditions are expected for 05-Jan
for middle to latitudes with poor conditions expected at high
latitudes due to absorption associated with an S1 solar radiation
storm. Conditions should gradually improve over 06-07 Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
15% depressed to near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 85 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on
3 January and is current for 4-6 Jan. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 4 was issued on 4 January and is current for 5 Jan only.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Jan in the Australian
region were generally depressed 15% to near predicted monthly
values, with MUFs at Darwin enhanced by 30% during the local
day. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours.
Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Canberra and Niue. MUFs
are expected to be 15-30% depressed on 05-Jan following overnight
G1 geomagnetic storm activity. The ionospheric depression response
is expected to be stronger in the southern Australian region.
MUFs are expected to be milldy depressed on 06-Jan an near normal
on 07-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts were observed at 03/2204-04/0044UT
and 05/0509-0618UT. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 36300 K Bz: 8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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