[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jan 4 10:30:47 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.2 1139UT probable all European
M2.3 2212UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X1.1 2241UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 200/152
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 190/143 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Jan was R3 due to two X1
class flares from AR3947 (N10E60, beta-gamma-delta) with an X1.2
flare at 03/1139UT and an X1.1 flare at 03/2241UT. Both flares
were relatively short in duration. The later X1 flare was preceded
by an M2.3 flare also from region AR3947. This region has recently
rotated onto the visible solar disk. There are currently eleven
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Solar regions AR3943
(S16E24, beta-gamma), AR3945 (S09E35, beta-gamma) and AR3944
(S14W05, beta) have shown slight growth. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. A small solar filament located
at N12W50 erupted during the interval 03/1907-1938UT. This event
is not considered significant due to the westward location and
small size of the filament. Solar activity is expected to be
R1-R2 over 04-06 Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed on UT day 03-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 04-06 Jan. No CME was observed in association
with the X1.2 flare. Coronagraph imagery will be checked for
any CME from the later X1.1 flare, though the current far eastward
location of AR3947 is likely to greatly reduce any possible CME
effects. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed on 03-Jan
up to 03/1912UT, with a faint east non-Earth directed CME observed
from 03/1212UT in LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind environment
on UT day 03-Jan was enhanced due to ongoing declining CME effects.
The solar wind speed ranged between 470 to 399 km/s and is currently
at 400km/s with an overall declining trend. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +15 to -1 nT. A coronal hole wind stream may reach
the Earth over 04-05-Jan moderately enhancing the solar wind
speed, in addition to a possible weak CME arrival on 04-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 23430212
Cocos Island 9 23420212
Darwin 10 23430212
Townsville 11 33430222
Learmonth 12 33430223
Alice Springs 11 23430213
Gingin 10 33331222
Canberra 9 23420212
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 23430212
Hobart 10 33430112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 23210121
Casey 28 45643223
Mawson 17 24531233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 11 (Quiet)
Gingin 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 23 3135 4543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 15 G0, chance G1
05 Jan 15 G0, chance G1
06 Jan 15 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: In the Australian region on UT day 03-Jan G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed, with the regional geomagnetic field
mildly disturbed in the first half of the UT day due to lingering
CME effects. In the Antarctic region G0 conditions were observed
at Macquarie Island and G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
at Casey and Mawson. G0, chance G1 geomagnetic conditions are
possible on 04-06 Jan due to a possible weak CME glancing blow
arrival on 04-Jan and coronal hole wind stream effects from late
04-Jan to 06-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
05 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
06 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 03-Jan were fair
to normal, with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes.
Mildly degraded degradations are expected during 04-06 Jan for
middle to high latitudes in association with a mild increase
in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20-40%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% to near predicted monthly values.
Darwin MUFs depressed by 30% early in the UT day.
Learmonth MUFs depressed by 30% during the local day.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% to near predicted monthly values.
Perth MUFs depressed by 30% during the local day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 2 January
and is current for 2-4 Jan. ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning
3 was issued on 3 January and is current for 4-6 Jan. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Jan in the Australian
region were depressed 15-30% to near predicted monthly values.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic
E was observed at Brisbane late in the UT day. MUFs are expected
to be 10-15% depressed to near predicted monthly values for 04-06
Jan due to an expected mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
A shortwave fadeout was observed at Niue and Norfolk Island 03/2235-2310UT
in association with the X1.1 solar flare at 03/2241UT. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 40100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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