[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 3 10:30:48 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1740UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 212/163
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 215/165 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Jan was R1, with a single
M1.1 solar flare. There are currently eight numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR 3944 (S14E06, beta), AR3945 (S10E47,
beta) and AR3946 (S12E55, beta) have all grown in the past day.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance for R2 over 3-5
Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT
day 2-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
3-5 Jan.
A CME that erupted near the vicinity of AR 3939 (S17W34,
beta-gamma) from 01/0224 UT may have a weak glancing blow on
04-Jan. Magnetic loops can be seen breaking near AR3939 from
02/1432 UT. A CME can be observed directed to the west from 1448
UT; analysis is underway to determine if these events are related.
No other noteworthy CMEs were observed on UT day 2-Jan. The solar
wind environment on UT day 2-Jan was moderately disturbed due
to lingering CME effects.
The solar wind speed ranged between
560 to 446 km/s, on a general decrease. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +8 to -11 nT. A weak CME may have arrived at Earth
from 0336 UT, and several periods of southward Bz were observed.
The solar wind is expected to be generally ner background levels
on 3-Jan; a pair of coronal holes may connect with the Earth
on 4 or 5-Jan to enhance the solar wind speed, in addition to
a weak CME impact on 4-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: G1
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 22 32454433
Cocos Island 13 32333332
Darwin 20 32444433
Townsville 22 32454433
Learmonth 30 42545543
Alice Springs 25 32554433
Gingin 21 42444433
Canberra 22 32454433
Kennaook Cape Grim 30 43465333
Hobart 30 33465433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie Island 53 43476652
Casey 35 46644333
Mawson 34 34456542
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 48
Planetary 126 3546 8984
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 10 G0
04 Jan 14 G0, chance G1
05 Jan 12 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 1 January
and is current for 2-3 Jan. In the Australian region on UT day
2-Jan, G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed due to lingering
CME effects. G1-G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
3-Jan. G1 geomagnetic conditions are possible on 4-Jan due to
a weak CME glancing blow. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are possible
on 5-Jan due to a pair of coronal holes rotating into a geoeffective
location.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair
04 Jan Normal Normal Fair
05 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 2-Jan were degraded
at all latitudes. Blackout conditions were common; spread-F was
present at high and mid latitudes, and sporadic-E was present
at low latitudes. Conditions are expected to be generally improving
over 3-4 Jan, but some mild degradations may be observed on 5-Jan
due to possible geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 85 Near predicted values to 25% depressed
04 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
05 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 2 January
and is current for 2-4 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region on UT day 2-Jan were depressed by 20-50%
due to recent geomagnetic activity. Conditions were partially
blacked out during local daylight hours. Spread F was common
at southern Australian sites, particularly in Hobart. Sporadic-E
was strong at northern sites such as Niue Island. MUfs are expected
to continue to be depressed over 3-4 Jan but improving; further
depressions are then possible by 5-Jan due to a pair of coronal
holes that may induce geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 511 km/sec Density: 11.5 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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