[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 2 10:30:48 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0445UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1524UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 1817UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.1 2141UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 219/169
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 215/165 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Jan was R1, with several
low level M-class solar flares. There are currently nine numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3939 (S17W21, beta-gamma-delta),
AR3941 (S06W12, beta-gamma), AR3944 (S14E20, beta) and AR3945
(S10E60, beta) have all grown in the past day. AR3936 (N13W80,
beta-gamma-delta) is currently the most complex region on the
disk, but has been stable this past day. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be R0-R1, with a chance for R2-R3 events over 02-04 Jan.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 01-Jan. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 02-04 Jan.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 01-Jan, although being near
the solar west or east limbs none are expected to be geoeffective.
The solar wind environment on UT day 02-Jan was disturbed due
to continued CME effects, and an additional CME impacts that
caused a weak sudden impulse at 0328 UT. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 26 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +15 to -23 nT, with several periods of sustained
southward Bz. The solar wind speed increased from 0230 UT, peaking
at 550 km/s The solar wind speed is currently near 515 km/s.
In general the solar wind is expected to trend towards background
levels, although is still expected to remain mostly disturbed over 02-03
Jan. A pair of coronal holes may connect with the Earth by late
03-Jan, but more likely 04-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: G3
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 59 35556763
Cocos Island 51 24555763
Darwin 51 35555753
Townsville 64 35566764
Learmonth 56 45556753
Alice Springs 51 35556663
Gingin 65 44557763
Canberra 64 35566764
Kennaook Cape Grim - --------
Hobart 99 3556-964
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
Macquarie Island 91 26467873
Casey 88 67864653
Mawson 77 56674764
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gingin 84 (Minor storm)
Canberra 114 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 47
Planetary 85
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 0121 0443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 35 Mostly G0-G1, chance G2-G3
03 Jan 12 G0, chance G1
04 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 1 January
and is current for 1-2 Jan. Planetary G4 geomagnetic conditions
were observed on UT day due to ongoing CME effects, with possibly
additional CME arrivals. The Australian reched a maximum of G3
geomagnetic conditions. G2-G4 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in Antarctica. G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions are possible on UT
day 02-Jan, although due to mostly settled solar wind conditions
at time of writing this is not likely. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are generally expected over 03-04 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
03 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
04 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 01-Jan were
significantly degraded due to geomagnetic activity, especially
for high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to continue to be degraded over 02-Jan, with improvements on
03-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
03 Jan 95 Near predicted values to 25% depressed
04 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 1 January
and is current for 1-2 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region were depressed up to 45%, particularly
during local night hours. Conditions during local night hours
in the Australian region were significantly degraded, especially
in Hobart, Perth and Canberra, Spread-F was common at most sites.
Scintillation was observed at Weipa from 1039-1440 UT. Degraded
and depressed conditions are expected to continue on 02-Jan,
with depressions lingering over 03-04 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 70900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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