[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 31 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 1 10:30:48 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 30/2241UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 0500UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.0 2151UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.7 2219UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 218/168
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 200/152 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Dec was at the R1 level
due to an M1.0 flare at 31/0500UT and a triple-peaked M2.9 flare
at 31/2250UT. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3932
(S15W68, alpha) was responsible for the first M-class flare of
the UT day, but has since decayed and rotated off the visible
solar disk. AR3936 (N14W67, beta) was responsible for the triple-peaked
M2.7 flare and has shown some spot decay on 31-Dec. AR3944 (S14E38,
beta) showed spot development over the UT day. All other numbered
regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region is
visible on the solar disk at S12W22 with beta magnetic characteristics.
Another unnumbered region has rotated onto the solar disk at
around S13E78 with beta magnetic characteristics. Solar activity
is expected to be at R1-R2 levels with a chance of R3 over 01-03
Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT
day 31-Dec. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 01-03 Jan. Several narrow CMEs were observed over the UT
day, but none are considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind
speed was steady at around 350 km/s before a shock was observed
at 31/1547UT. This shock is due to an impact from a CME first
observed on 29-Dec. The wind speed jumped to around 485 km/s
due to this impact and has remain moderate but variable since
then. The current wind speed is around 445 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 26 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +17 to -18 nT. A sustained period
of southward Bz was observed from 31/1815UT until 31/2210UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced due to the
recent CME impact until a further impact on 01-Jan. The solar
wind speed is expected to be moderately elevated over 02-03 Jan,
with the possibility of another enhancement on 03-Jan due to
a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 31-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: G1
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 13 12221533
Cocos Island 9 12111433
Darwin 12 11121533
Townsville 14 12221543
Learmonth 14 11221534
Alice Springs 12 11221533
Gingin 11 12220434
Canberra 9 11210433
Kennaook Cape Grim - --------
Hobart 10 12221433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 10 12321432
Casey 33 56532443
Mawson 16 34322433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 0221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 25 G0-G1, chance G2
02 Jan 8 G0
03 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 78 was issued on 29 December
and is current for 31 Dec to 1 Jan. G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 31-Dec. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with G2 conditions observed at Casey. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions,
with a chance of G2 are expected on 01-Jan due an anticipated
CME impact combined with ongoing CME impact effects. G0 conditions
are expected over 02-03 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were generally normal
to fair, with fair to poor conditions observed at high latitudes.
Degraded HF radio propagation conditions are expected over 01-02
Jan due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. A recovery towards
mostly normal conditions is expected on the second half of 02-Jan,
to 03-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 125 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 125 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 150 was
issued on 29 December and is current for 31 Dec to 2 Jan. ASWFC
SWF HF Communications Warning 151 was issued on 31 December and
is current for 31 Dec to 2 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region on UT day 31-Dec were near predicted
monthly values with depressions of up to 25% observed in the
northern Australian region after local dawn. Sporadic-E at low
frequencies was common at most sites at various hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
over 01-02 Jan, due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 03-Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 30200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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