[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 January 25 issued 2335 UT on 30 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 31 10:35:40 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 195/147 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Jan was R0. Solar region
AR3976 (N12E47, beta-gamma) and AR3978 (N11E58, beta) produced
low level C class flares. Solar region AR3976 is slowly growing
and nearby AR3978 has new spots emerging to the north of the
main spot. Smaller region AR3974 (S16E24, beta) is also slowly
growing. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. Three new small regions have been numbered and
a very small region in the northwest quadrant has reemerged.
A partial filament eruption was observed at 30/1413UT located
at S10E15. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 31-Jan
to 02-Feb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 30-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 31-Jan to 02-Feb. A partially Earth directed CME has been
observed. A southeast directed CME was observed following the
filament eruption and has been paired with this event, with subsequent
modelling showing a glancing blow arrival on 01-Feb at 2000UT
+/- 12 hours. A southwest directed CME was observed from 30/1112UT
and a west directed CME observed from 30/1836UT and neither
of these CMEs could be correlated to on disk activity. The solar
wind environment on UT day 30-Jan was initially nominal then
becoming mildly disturbed late in the UT day due to a possible
weak indistinct CME transit. The solar wind was initially slow
and steady then mildly increasing after 30/1530UT, peaking at
near 360km/s during the interval 30/1900-2000UT. The IMF Bt was
moderately enhanced from around 30/1500UT and the IMF Bz component
was orientated southward 30/1830-2000UT. The solar wind speed
ranged from 290 to 360 km/s and is currently at 330 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT
and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +14 to -12 nT. The Earth
is expected to enter coronal hole high speed wind streams from
a pair of large coronal holes currently crossing the solar central
meridian from late in the UT day on 31-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 21211223
Cocos Island 4 21101222
Darwin 7 22211223
Townsville 9 22211333
Learmonth 9 32211323
Alice Springs 5 22111222
Gingin 6 21211223
Canberra 5 11101223
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 11211223
Hobart 6 11211223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 10100023
Casey 19 54432133
Mawson 7 22212223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2112 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 16 G0, chance of G1 periods
01 Feb 20 G0-G1
02 Feb 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 29 January
and is current for 31 Jan to 1 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 30-Jan. G0 geomagnetic
conditions were generally observed in the Antarctic region, with
an isolated G1 period observed at Casey. G0, chance G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected for 31-Jan with an isolated G1 period
possible early in the UT day following a very weak CME transit,
then later in the UT day G1 periods may be experienced due to
the onset of coronal hole high speed solar wind streams from
a pair of coronal holes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
01 Feb Normal Fair Fair
02 Feb Normal Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were fair to normal
on UT day 30-Jan, with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be fair to normal
on 31-Jan following a very weak CME transit, and fair on 01-02
Feb for middle to high latitudes due to an expected mild increase
in geomagnetic activity associated with coronal hole wind streams.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced 15% during local night.
Enhanced 15% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
01 Feb 120 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
02 Feb 105 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted values to 15% enhanced on UT day 30-Jan.
Mild spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours.
Southern Australian region MUFs were 15% enhanced after local
dawn. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced
for 31-Jan. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity is expected
from late 31-Jan and southern Australian region MUFs may become
mildly depressed at times during the interval 01-02 Feb. Isolated
minor fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 30300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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